Denver Broncos: Will late-season surge equal playoffs?

Don’t look now, but the Denver Broncos are surging. After two impressive victories over two playoff teams, the Broncos are riding high and on route to serious playoff consideration. Will they steal a wildcard spot?

Quiet please. The Denver Broncos may actually be a solid football team ready to make the playoffs. They are, at the very least, the best bad team in the league.

Take a look at Denver’s schedule thus far on the season. The Broncos are 5-6. Kind of blah, right? But their six losses include two games against Kansas City and another against the LA Rams. Overall, their record has come against teams with a combined current record of 35-19.

They also somehow managed to play three consecutive opponents who were riding active five-plus game winning streaks. Houston entered Week 9 having won five in a row; Los Angeles entered Week 11 having won six in a row; Pittsburgh entered Week 12 having won six in a row.

Will the Denver Broncos late season surge lead to the playoffs? Is this one of the better football teams in the AFC, or just a team on a hot streak, ready to cool off?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Denver Broncos in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Denver toppled two of those streaking opponents, and it now faces quite a reprieve the rest of the season to boot. Compare their past opponents’ .648 winning percentage to what is coming up. Denver’s remaining opponents have won 21 of 55 games (including one tie). Other than a rematch against the Chargers, it is a who’s-who of the worst stuff the league has to offer. The Broncos may play the teams set to claim the first and second overall picks in the 2019 draft in the span of three weeks in December.

The Broncos’ defense is quietly as elite as it’s used to being. The numbers back this up, but so does the eye test. It held down Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and Houston the past three weeks. The Chiefs and a surprise clunker against the Jets are the only teams to hang 30 on this unit.

The running game has been superb. Rookies Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman are carrying Denver to a team average of 5.2 yards per carry and zero total fumbles. Those are respectively the second-best and tied for best marks in the league through 12 weeks. The pieces are here for the same blueprint that won this squad the Super Bowl under a broken Peyton Manning‘s watch.

More from NFL Spin Zone

• Dallas Cowboys made the trade everyone else should have made
• Pittsburgh Steelers rookie sleeper everyone should be talking about
• Anthony Richardson putting jaw-dropping talent on display immediately
• Denver Broncos’ stud wide receiver might be out for a while
• Washington Commanders: Three takeaways from win over Ravens

But the all-important question: are you a believer? Is this a legitimate contender or just the best bad team in the sport? The Broncos are far out of the AFC West race, but no one is more than one game ahead of them for the conference’s second wildcard spot. With a dead-even zero point differential, Denver is exactly in the middle of everything right now. Which way will the rest of the season transpire? Maybe my preseason pick of the Broncos making the playoffs isn’t dead after all.

Dan Salem:

The Denver Broncos are surging at just the right time, but its hard for me to forgive the mess they made against my New York Jets. That team was awful, worse than arguably one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. But we can easily assume that game was an anomaly, because the remainder of Denver’s season has been rather impressive. The Jets game aside, they are 5-5 with four good losses. Three came against the two best teams in the NFL, while a fourth was a nail biter versus the AFC South division leading Houston Texans.

Will the Broncos make the NFL Playoffs? Denver’s sixth loss was against Baltimore, a bad sign for a potential playoff tie breaker. Three of their five wins came against playoff caliber teams, which is good. They are near the bottom of the league in points per game on offense, which is bad. But let’s cut to the chase, because Denver is one of six teams at 5-6 or 6-5, competing for one AFC wildcard spot.

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the top five AFC playoff spots are locked in. Currently the Broncos hold next to none of the tie breakers, which is bad. But Denver’s final five games consist of only one playoff team, which is good. I’d be surprised if the Broncos did not go 4-1 or 3-2 over their final set of games. Assuming they go 3-2 and continue to play up to their potential, this puts Denver at 8-8 on the season. This will not be good enough to make the playoffs. Denver stays home.

Perhaps the Broncos beat all of Los Angeles, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Oakland and San Francisco. Consider me skeptical after they put up some clunkers already this season. The Browns and Chargers are both playing great right now. The Bengals and 49ers are no slouches either. More importantly, both Indianapolis and Baltimore hold a one game lead on the Broncos. The Ravens have a tougher schedule, but they own the tiebreaker. This is a nice story in Denver and likely saves some jobs, but it appears destined to end in disappointment.