NFL: Defense will still determine Super Bowl 53 champion

It’s been a year of explosive offense and amazing numbers. But defense will still have a say when it comes to crowning an NFL champion at Atlanta.

This wasn’t supposed to happen in this supposed new era of the NFL. After all, the consensus is that it’s all about offense these days. Entering Week 13, the New Orleans Saints had won 10 consecutive games and scored an NFL-best 409 points. Sean Payton’s squad was tied for the league-low in turnovers (9) the team had scored at least 30 points in each of its previous five outings.

The club was averaging an impressive 416.6 total yards per game (fifth in the league) and the team’s offensive unit had reached the end zone 29 times. But after 30 minutes of play on Thursday night against the Dallas Cowboys, Sean Payton’s club had been shut out and been limited to a mere 59 total yards. And by evening’s end, the NFC South frontrunners managed only 176 total yards in a surprising 13-10 loss to the Cowboys.

So can a formidable defense still keep an explosive offense under wraps? And will that scenario present itself the first Sunday in February when the AFC and the NFC champions square off in Super Bowl LIII at Atlanta?

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History does tell us that scoring a lot of points during the regular season doesn’t mean it ensures a Lombardi Trophy. Submitted are the nine instances where a team totaled at least 540 points during an NFL campaign. And all have something very dubious in common: None of them have won the Super Bowl. In fact, only four of those teams made the Big Game.

This season, we have seen some electrifying numbers put up by Brees, Kansas City Chiefs’ second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Indianapolis Colts’ Andrew Luck, as well as the Chargers’ Philip Rivers and the Rams’ Jared Goff, to name a few.

But it is also worth reminding some that no player that led the league in passing yards won the Super Bowl the same season. And on only one occasion has a quarterback thrown at least 40 touchdown passes in a season (41 by the Rams’ Kurt Warner in 1999) and his team won it all the same campaign.

One more interesting note. During the Super Bowl Era, there have been 24 occasions in which a team led the NFL in scoring that season and reached the Big Game. Those clubs own a 10-14 record on Super Sunday. Meanwhile, 21 times a club gave up the fewest points in the regular season and played in the Super Bowl. Those teams won 15 times.

Perhaps when it’s all said and done, the Saints, Chiefs or Rams will take their explosive attack into the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Super Sunday and walk away with NFL championship. But a team better bring its defense if it doesn’t want to go home empty handed.