NFL 2018: Teams benefitting most from easy schedules
By Dan Salem
We all know its true, but that doesn’t make the wild misses any easier to stomach. The league turns over every season and NFL predictions for 2018 failed to catch them. Which team benefited most from a surprisingly easy schedule?
We take the following sentiment as something everyone says without truly believing it. It is nevertheless undeniably true. Preseason strength of schedule means nothing. The NFL turns over completely each and every season and the NFL in 2018 is no exception.
– The Chicago Bears (preseason over/under 6.5 wins) are leading the NFC North even after a bad loss this week. They hold a 1.5-game lead over the rest of the division and have a point differential that dwarfs their three peers.
– The Atlanta Falcons (9 wins) are pushovers, even at home. They are 4-8 overall, and Atlanta has already lost four times at home.
– The Green Bay Packers (10 wins) are finished and fired their coach. The team dropped to 4-7-1, the same record as the Cleveland Browns.
– The Jacksonville Jaguars (9 wins) are finished too at 4-8. After dominating the AFC last year and going 9-3, the Jaguars are currently 3-6 within their own conference.
– The Oakland Raiders (8 wins) may be the worst team in the sport, despite just hanging 33 on maybe the best team in the sport. A -147 differential is by far the worst mark in the league.
– The Philadelphia Eagles (10.5 wins) and Pittsburgh Steelers (10.5 wins) are nowhere close to the playoff locks we expected. Both still have chances, but only thanks to very weak divisions.
– The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.5 wins) look like a team no one wants to play, while the San Francisco 49ers (8.5 wins) are a team everyone wants to play.
That was just the quickest of possible rundowns of the wild misses in 2018 NFL preseason expectations. It happens every season. Playing Chicago looked like a great option, while no one would want to see Green Bay and Minnesota on the docket. Once the action gets underway, the opposite holds true. Which NFL team benefited most from these wild misses?
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
It’s easy to point to a team like New Orleans and see how mutated strength of schedules would form current results. The Saints have notched at least five wins already against teams who were expected to be much better than they are. But part of under-performing is, of course, credited to having to play opponents like New Orleans.
It’s a chicken-or-the-egg scenario. Would the Chiefs look this good if the 49ers, Jaguars, Raiders, and others played up to preseason expectations? Would those teams be as bad if Kansas City wasn’t so good?
Who do you see as the team that benefited most from incongruous preseason predictions? New Orleans and Kansas City are viable picks. The Saints especially stand out, as they were supposed to have the second-hardest schedule in the league this season. But those teams have felt incredibly talented on their own, especially offensively. And that hasn’t changed since the season began. My eye is, instead, on Tampa Bay.
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The Buccaneers were supposed to be one of the worst teams in the NFL and arguably the worst in the NFC. They are much better than that and have found a fearsome defense after making coaching changes during the year.
However, they have also collected two of their five wins against two of the biggest disappointments in the sport: Philadelphia and San Francisco. If those two opponents weren’t so hobbled and hampered by injuries, would the Buccaneers be 3-9 and right in line with expectations rather than 5-7 and on a roll?
One-score losses to Pittsburgh, Atlanta and the Giants tell a similar story, even if the final outcome didn’t unseat those preseason prognostications. Tampa Bay may be sneaky good, but not really because of anything it has done.
Dan Salem:
Tampa Bay is a great pick, because they certainly have benefited from an easier schedule and weaker division than anyone imagined. My pick is the Dallas Cowboys, however, because they have only one good win on their resume and are playing in the weakest NFL division. Not a single team in the NFC East appears truly dominant. Every other division has at least one dominant team.
Dallas currently sits alone atop the NFC East, in first place thanks to another loss by Washington. Of their seven victories, three came against teams playing much worse than anyone predicted. The Jaguars, Eagles, and Falcons are all pretty bad. Flip those into losses and the Cowboys are 4-8 and Jason Garrett is fired. Add in their win over a disappointing Giants team, and Dallas’ resume looks even weaker.
The Cowboys’ only good win came last week against New Orleans, at home on Thursday night football. Home teams have overwhelmingly dominated on Thursdays, but credit is due to Dallas for pulling off the upset. All of their losses came against teams in serious playoff contention, meaning they have lost to the good teams and beat only one. I’m not sure if Dallas is hitting that hot streak which leads so many teams into the playoffs, but they are in this position because their schedule turned sharply in their favor.
Honorable mention goes to the Dolphins and Seahawks. Miami only beat one good team this season, and wins over the Titans and Raiders look more and more unimpressive as the year trudges along. Seattle defeated the Panthers, Packers, and 49ers. Those three teams all stink, despite having favorable outlooks in August. One of these years the schedule will break in favor of my New York Jets, and hopefully the team will be good enough for it to matter.