Fantasy Football 2018: Defense is an enigma and here’s why

Don’t let the “experts” trick you into believing they have the answer, because defense in Fantasy Football 2018 is an enigma. No one can agree on who’s best, because everyone is overthinking. Here’s the truth.

It is very easy to tell how screwed up of a year it has been for fantasy football defenses. Take a look at ESPN’s rankings for the position for Week 14. Keep in mind, this is either a portion of the fantasy playoffs or the final week of the fantasy football 2018 regular season for most leagues. Nearly everything should be set by now with little in the way of surprises. We can’t get more of a sample than the final weeks of the year would have banked.

Nevertheless, the variation from the six experts on ESPN.com is drastic! No one has a clue how to evaluate defenses, so why have they become such an enigma? Let’s get to the bottom of things.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate Fantasy Football 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

You know something is screwed up when even the “experts” all disagree. The Jacksonville Jaguars are ranked as high as the number one overall defense and as low as 17th. Just imagine that; either the very best unit to use this week or a team so bad that it shouldn’t even be considered as a waiver add. One to 17.

The Los Angeles Rams are as high as third and as low as 15th. The Detroit Lions vary from third to 17th. The Denver Broncos third to 16th. The Pittsburgh Steelers third to 15th. I can keep going.

Kansas City varies from seventh to 18th. Washington fourth to 16th. The Jets fifth to 21st. The Bears fourth to 19th. The Saints sixth to 21st. The Cardinals ninth to 27th. The Giants sixth to 29th.

The variation stems from experts’ varying beliefs in the impact of a defense’s opponent versus the talent level of the defense itself. Except the same experts aren’t similarly weighing one or the other. It feels entirely random. Sometimes a rank will reward a defense for facing a terrible opposing offense. Sometimes it won’t.

Just think about this. Some of the best fantasy football experts in the world have zero clue as to how to rank defenses during the fantasy football playoffs after seeing more than a dozen weeks of evidence.

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The only thing they agree upon is the top three which, in order, is Buffalo, Los Angeles (AFC), and Tennessee. But that seems like a ludicrous group to unanimously agree will be great. Buffalo is only the eighth-best defense for the season in standard scoring and has nearly half the fantasy points of first place Chicago. It has also scored three or fewer points five separate times already.

The Chargers are in a similar spot to Buffalo overall. And then there’s Tennessee. The third-best defense this week ranks no lower than sixth from any expert. On the season, the Titans rank…22nd! The unit has essentially been unplayable for all but a handful of weeks this season, and now it comes in at number three.

I don’t have a conclusion here. I have no idea what to make of this other than saying offenses are completely controlling the sport, and no defense can be counted on with any consistency. There is a debate to be had over starting the talented defense regardless of opponent versus starting a defense against a terrible offense regardless of its merits.

In Week 14, that would come down to starting Chicago (against the Rams) or aforementioned Tennessee (against Jacksonville). The experts have spoken which side one should take. Well, except for the fact that not everyone did rank Tennessee above Chicago. Nobody knows anything.

Dan Salem:

Who do these experts think they are? Tennessee is a terrible play this week, mainly because they are not a good football team. How many turnovers did the Titans coerce out of the New York Jets last week? One in garbage time, with 30 seconds to play. Give me a break!

Sacks and turnovers are what have made for great Fantasy Football 2018 defenses. This is why the New Orleans Saints have been one of the best, if not the best, fantasy defense over the last month or two. No matter their opponent, or how the game plays out, New Orleans is getting a ton of sacks and multiple turnovers. That equals points.

Carolina was an excellent fantasy defense in September, until they stopped getting to the quarterback and became one of the worst plays available. A team’s ability to keep up their numbers is difficult to predict, but the trends are right there for us to see.

If my answer seems boring, its probably because the truth usually is. That is why our “experts” are working so hard to “find the perfect matchup” with their rankings of fantasy defense. The truth is that teams who get turnovers and sacks are the ones to rely upon. No one else is worth the risk. I can personally attest to playing the odds with a “good” defensive matchup against a “bad” offense this year, only to get burned and end up with negative points for my defense. I let that happen once, then grabbed New Orleans when noone was looking.

The trend I see in Fantasy Football 2018 is actually kind of refreshing. Owners must now semi-stream their defense, kicker, and tight end. Obviously, if you have one of the best at any of those three spots, then don’t bother. But all three positions should be drafted last, unless you can get a player like Travis Kelce.

That means you need to ride the momentum of a kicker, defense, or tight end. Fantasy baseball always required streaming of certain positions to some extent, but football did not. Now we can get more hands on week to week and month to month, watching a team’s roller coaster and betting on how the ride will end. I love this!