The Atlanta Falcons firing offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is a move that could potentially vault the Dirty Birds in a big way for 2019.
Following the 2016-17 season for the Atlanta Falcons, people started to look at their offense as infallible. With Kyle Shanahan coordinating the unit, quarterback Matt Ryan went on to an MVP season while the team went all the way to the Super Bowl. In fact, you could argue that their offense being too quick-striking and explosive allowed the Patriots to complete their historic comeback in the Big Game.
After that run, however, it seemed as if the Falcons were set up to shine. That was even the case after Shanahan was hired as the San Francisco 49ers head coach and replaced by Steve Sarkisian in Atlanta. After two years with Sark at the helm of the offense, though, he has now been let go by the organization after the 2018 season, and it’s not hard to see why.
Admittedly, Sarkisian was better in 2018 than he was in 2017 from a numbers perspective. Ryan looked closer to his MVP form than in the previous year, the scoring increased and there were more flashes. However, this isn’t a team that should only be showing flashes. In 2016, they showed that they should be a unit that runs opposing defenses into the ground week in and week out, which was never the case under Sark.
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You can look at the Falcons offensive efficiency statistics and see this. In 2016 with Shanahan running the show, Atlanta ranked fourth in the NFL in Football Outsiders’ Offensive DVOA (up from 26th the previous year). That dropped to ninth in the NFL in Sarkisian’s first year as offensive coordinator and only rose to eighth in 2018.
While that’s not a precipitous drop and there was some bad injury luck — particularly on the offensive line — for Atlanta, it’s still hard to defend. Even if Ryan isn’t an MVP caliber quarterback, we’ve seen that he can be close to that level. Moreover, this is an offense that is bursting at the seams with good-to-elite offensive weapons.
Whether it’s Julio Jones and rookie Calvin Ridley at wide receiver or the duo of Devonta Freeman (injured for most of 2018) and Tevin Coleman, this offense can strike in a variety of ways and at any moment. Under Sarkisian, however, they never were able to consistently do that. It was a rollercoaster of booms and lulls, which is unacceptable for a group that’s this talented.
Obviously it will depend on who the Falcons hire to replace Sarkisian, but the move to oust him presents a ton of upside for this team. Under Shanahan, they proved that this offense can be Super Bowl caliber, especially since the personnel remains quite close to the same. That never materialized under Sark.
An offensive genius like Shanahan may not be coming to Atlanta, but someone in between the past two offensive coordinators in regards to effectiveness may be. And if that happens (along with the defense getting healthy and improving under Dan Quinn’s control), this team has far more potential than the 7-9 effort that they put forth in the 2018 season.