NFL Playoffs 2019: Championship Round best picks against the spread (ATS)

The Final Four teams in the NFL Playoffs 2019 are the best four teams from the season. They are evenly matched and the lines reflect this. Where should your money land? Your best picks against the spread (ATS).

The top teams, the best teams, the home teams, the favorites — however you want to term things — dominated in the Divisional Round of the 2019 NFL Playoffs. The lone underdog to cover was Philadelphia, who snuck under the touchdown-plus line thanks to a missed field goal from Wil Lutz. That leaves us with the top four teams in football for the conference championship games, which isn’t too shabby a proposition at all.

Having the consensus top four teams left alive makes for some real troubles in handicapping. Where is the edge when these squads won by an average of more than 11 points in the divisional round, and no one’s game was closer than six? These are your best championship round picks against the spread for the 2019 NFL Playoffs. All lines are via Odds Shark.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Playoffs 2019 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Regular season record: 38-30
Dan Salem’s playoff record: 3-4-1
Todd Salem’s playoff record: 6-2

Your Best Picks ATS:

Todd Salem: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 at New Orleans Saints
Dan Salem: Los Angeles Rams +3.5 at New Orleans Saints

Todd Salem: After a stuffy first quarter, the Saints stuck it to Philadelphia last round. The defense didn’t allow a thing, and the offense keep churning, play after play, drive after drive. But Los Angeles has a much more potent offense than this version of Philadelphia. And call me crazy, but I don’t see any offense being able to hold back the Rams’ defensive line for an 11-minute drive.

I like that LA was 6-2 on the road this year. I like that the Rams are getting more than a field goal. I also like that casual fans have somewhat soured on Sean McVay after the team went 2-2 down the stretch even as the entire league tries to copy him in their coaching hires. That’s likely what gifted me the extra half point on this line.

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Dan Salem: Do I dare pick against you, considering you’ve gone 6-2 thus far in the playoffs? Not in this game, because I’m backing the Rams all the way. They dominated the Cowboys, completely shutting down their run game in terms of impact to the game. Los Angeles controlled both sides of the football. The Saints are certainly a great team, but I don’t think they move the ball so easily against the Rams’ defensive front. Drew Brees is showing his age at times, which opens the door for Los Angeles to take advantage.

Give me the field goal buffer, I’m backing the road team in this game. The turnover battle will be key, and the Rams are poised to snatch multiple takeaways. Los Angeles in the Super Bowl.

Todd Salem: Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. New England Patriots
Dan Salem: New England Patriots +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

Todd Salem: I really wished this line had dipped below three to 2.5 or two because of the heavy public money for New England. Even still, Kansas City at home is a nearly unbeatable animal. I needed to see enough last week to believe the defense could hang with postseason opponents, and it can.

New England seemingly flipping a playoff switch is scary, but are the Patriots going to be the same on the road against the most potent offense in the conference? The Patriots rode their home field to a bye this season; they only went 3-5 on the road. Bill Belichick came out and said road woes aren’t a concern, because of course he did. What is he supposed to say?

Dan Salem: Despite your record, I must trust my instincts and pick against you in this game. There’s a solid chance of a push, considering the line is exactly a field goal. But several things make me lean towards New England.

The weather is going to be brutally cold, meaning less passing and more running on offense. That favors the Patriots after they put on a show running the ball against the Chargers. If New England can control the time of possession via the run, they can get a few more points on the board.

I also favor Tom Brady in this game, because he is the ultimate dink and dunk quarterback. New England is going to slow this game to a crawl, if possible. They don’t have the downfield weapons to do otherwise. I’m also working a reverse jinx, as I’d prefer Kansas City win. Here’s to a Patriots loss and cover!