Super Bowl 53 is a great opportunity to wager on football. The number of prop bets is incredible, but the real money is made on the game, over/under, and MVP lines. These are your best picks against the spread.
In the conference title games, both underdogs won outright to advance to Super Bowl LIII. A matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the New England Patriots is one of major diversity.
It pits the man looking to become the oldest head coach to ever win the Super Bowl against the man trying to become the youngest. It pits perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time and a legendary draft value against a former first overall pick who looked like a bust after one season.
A star-driven offense in Los Angeles faces a communist offense in New England where everyone must do their part. A star-driven defense in Los Angeles also matches up with a unit that is surprisingly excelling here in the postseason. Where do the advantages lie?
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Later in the week, we will have a blown-out Super Bowl LIII prop bet article. Today we are discussing the heavy-hitters of the gambling lexicon: the game spread, the over/under, and Super Bowl MVP. This is where the real money is made and these are your best picks against the spread for Super Bowl LIII. Lines for the game via Odds Shark. Lines for MVP via SB Nation.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate Super Bowl 53 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Regular season record: 38-30
Dan Salem’s playoff record: 5-4-1
Todd Salem’s playoff record: 7-3
The Game
Todd Salem: New England Patriots -2.5
Dan Salem: Los Angeles Rams +2.5
Todd Salem: Though the game opened with Los Angeles briefly favored, the sharps pushed this to New England -2.5, and that is the side I am backing. With the way the Patriots are playing in the postseason, the talent disparity (in which I would have previously given a major edge to the Rams) feels null. Experience in these situations and closing out wins gives a major leg up to the Pats.
Dan Salem: While it pains me to pick against the Patriots, I am not giving points in this Super Bowl. Until the line flipped, I was seriously considering taking New England plus points. Now we get an easy choice, backing Los Angeles plus nearly a field goal. If you can find a full field goal line, then take it. One or two spots are going that far, but points are points. The Rams can easily pull away from the suspect New England defense, but if the Patriots manage to win, it will be a very close game.
The Over/Under
Todd Salem: Under 56.6 points
Dan Salem: Over 56.6 points
Todd Salem: I also think the defenses will perform better than expected, as they have in each previous round of the playoffs. I will go under 56.6. Los Angeles has played below that mark all month. Even the Pats were involved in a low-scoring affair in the conference title before an historic fourth quarter.
Dan Salem: I can see a lower scoring game until the fourth quarter, because both teams like to play ball control with their running games. But I’m sticking by my score prediction made here on NFL Spinzone. Los Angeles will put up over 30 points, because the Patriots’ defense is a bend but don’t break unit this season. They game plan wonderfully, but can only stop so many of Los Angeles’ weapons. The Rams defense is excellent, but New England always finds a way into the endzone, especially late in games. The line implies at least 28 points per team. No problem.
The Super Bowl 53 MVP
Todd Salem: Sony Michel +1500
Dan Salem: Aaron Donald +1800
Todd Salem: Super Bowl MVP is the toughest pick, obviously, because there are the most options. Tom Brady is the favorite, with Jared Goff a close second. With Todd Gurley running the third-lowest odds, a surprise pick would be C.J. Anderson, who has out-carried and out-gained Gurley in each round of the playoffs to this point.
A more realistic selection in my mind, though, is Sony Michel at +1500. Michel has been an absolute force in each round of the postseason, and it isn’t hard to imagine a game plan centered around controlling the clock and feeding him the ball. Brady’s impact would be lessened, and the Patriots’ victory would be dependent on Michel.
Dan Salem: This is always a tricky bet, because its not worth picking a quarterback because of the odds. Yet they are the ones most likely to win. I do love the C.J. Anderson pick, only because I can see him dominating a low scoring game. He’s been unstoppable in the playoffs. If Anderson grabs 100 yards and a touchdown in a 17-10 game, he can win.
That being said, my pick is Aaron Donald. The Rams will get to Tom Brady and Donald will be the reason. He simply needs to record 3+ sacks and a turnover to get MVP honors, holding New England in check. With the Los Angeles offense spreading the love around, Donald stands out as the Super Bowl 53 MVP.