Dallas Cowboys on shaky ground entering NFL offseason

Last year the Dallas Cowboys exceeded expectations, but how good were they? The team’s identity is in flux as they stand on shaky ground entering the NFL offseason. How do the Cowboys remain on top?

It’s surprising to see that the Dallas Cowboys are slotted in 27th in the NFL Draft. Their pick is being sent to the Oakland Raiders anyway, but we had little recollection of Dallas being good last season. Between the Eagles’ magic, the power of the Rams and Saints, and the way the Rams versus Saints played out, Dallas completely slipped our minds. They were kind of okay!

Granted, the Dallas Cowboys were one of the weakest division winners in the league last season. In fact, all other division winners averaged a +125 point differential and outscored their opponents by a minimum of 86 points. Dallas finished at +15… so there’s work to do. Their identity is in flux as they stand on shaky ground entering the offseason. What must the Cowboys do to challenge the best of the NFC?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Dallas Cowboys in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

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Todd Salem:

Last year’s success sets Dallas up to have a very tough schedule next season, as well as not having the talent of those other first-place squads. To make matters worse, the team’s best defensive player, Demarcus Lawrence, is a free agent.

The Cowboys built their recent quality around a running game and offensive line. The line hasn’t been nearly as good as it was a few years back. Ezekiel Elliott still is a force, but controlling the ground game isn’t enough to win in 2019. Two of the best backs in the league are Saquon Barkley and David Johnson, and they play for two of the worst teams in the league. RB talent doesn’t translate as it once did.

Dallas overcame a lack of a passing attack by playing defense well above its head. It ranked seventh in the league in yards allowed and sixth in points per game. The group was a little worse when adjusting for opponent, but it jumped from 25th in 2017 to 9th in 2018 in DVOA. The skeptic in me says this isn’t a trend. It’s a warning sign of regression. If Lawrence isn’t brought back, it’s an outright declaration.

But the Cowboys have a ton of cap space and could create even more with some logical releases. There’s room to bring back Lawrence, add an Earl Thomas at safety, and increase the depth of the wide receiver corps. Whether all that is even enough to challenge the upper echelon of the NFC remains to be seen. I say it’s not unless Dak Prescott steps up his game. If the defense doesn’t fall apart, Prescott’s growth will be the difference between fringe playoff contention and vying for the Super Bowl.

Dan Salem:

We’ve witnessed the Dallas Cowboys waffle back and forth over the last three seasons. If that is a trend, then Dallas fans are in for a rocky ride in 2019. But the product on the field last season makes me think otherwise. The Cowboys played better than their team on paper, which is a great sign going forward.

Teams that out-pace expectations are either in for a regression, as you noted, or are actually getting better. The Cowboys appear to be in the “getting better” category on defense. Bringing back Lawrence is a necessity, as is adding veteran depth. But I’m confident in the Dallas defense going forward. It’s the offense that holds questions in terms of ceiling and success next season.

Dallas is lucky to play in the NFC East, because their division foes all remain two steps behind. Perhaps the Eagles are on par, but no one is ahead and the Cowboys aren’t hemorrhaging talent. That being said, they needed the gutsy trade deadline addition of Amari Cooper to make them a viable playoff team last year. Prescott needs more options in the passing game and Elliott needs someone to share some load running the football, so he can avoid the running back burnout which plagues so many players.

Tight end must become a factor, especially since there are few receivers available in free agency. Antonio Brown would obviously make a big splash and a huge difference for Dallas, but they don’t have the trade chips required to get him and already sent a first round pick to Oakland for Cooper. The upcoming draft looms larger than usual.

Besides re-signing current players, the Cowboys must draft exceptionally well. They have one more year left on Prescott’s and Elliott’s rookie deals, meaning there is no room for error this season. Dallas needs more weapons on offense, but won’t likely find them in free agency at the price they want to spend.

Prescott is due to take a step forward in his game, if it’s coming, but even a baseline level of performance will look better with more reliable targets. Throw what money you have at some veteran depth, then work that draft magic. The Dallas Cowboys should be very good, but they need a new breakout player to reach the top of the NFC.