Jacksonville Jaguars still teetering between great and awful

Will the real Jacksonville Jaguars please stand up? This year’s team isn’t far removed from the great one of 2017, yet last year was awful. What to believe?

Two years removed from being the up-and-coming threat in the AFC, one year removed from a disastrous season that necessitated a full offensive reset, the Jacksonville Jaguars are stuck between realms. Are they the squad that everyone thought would begin to own the conference and specifically the AFC South? Or are they the team that earned the seventh overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft after a messy season on both sides of the ball?

Jacksonville certainly hopes that the expensive signing of quarterback Nick Foles takes care of one-half of their struggles. Foles replaces Blake Bortles to lead an offense that does have a good amount of talent. A top 10 pick should help as well, so which team are we going to get?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Jacksonville Jaguars in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

Despite the obvious upgrade, I’m just not sure that Foles is the man for the job. He earned his new $88 million contract essentially on the back of three games. They came in the 2017 postseason and won Super Bowl MVP, but isn’t this awfully reminiscent of Joe Flacco? Except Flacco had a larger regular-season track record. I’m prepared to be wrong.

Maybe Foles has completely turned a corner. He wasn’t as good in 2018 as the year prior, but that doesn’t prove either career track correct.

The biggest questions with Jacksonville actually have nothing at all to do with Foles. Somehow, the team went from absolutely elite on defense and along the offensive line to being mediocre or poor in both areas. Such a drastic, one-year, negative turnaround is hard to explain. Whether these trends reverse course or not likely determines Foles’ success more than his own play will.

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In 2017, the Jaguars ranked fifth in the NFL is pass blocking and No. 1 overall in defense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA. Just one season later, those figures dropped to 27th on the line and sixth on defense. One obviously sounds worse than the other, but the change in the Jags defense was almost as notable. The team’s pass defense, specifically, was head and shoulders above the rest of the league in 2017. The No. 2 pass defense rated closer to 11th than it did to the Jags in first.

Perhaps last year was a course correction. The team should still settle in as a premier defensive squad. The personnel remains similar other than at safety. We could see the team add a safety in the draft, though not with that first pick. Instead, the Jaguars could be the first team to grab a tight end on draft day. That is certainly a position of need, as is the aforementioned offensive line. Iowa’s T.J. Hockenson could help in both areas as scouts deem him the best all-around tight end in the class.

It may seem illogical, but I’m both high on Jacksonville and low on Foles for this upcoming season. Foles should certainly be an improvement on Bortles, I just don’t see him as the franchise guy everyone assumes he will be. That limits the team’s upside but could still position them as a playoff contender.

Dan Salem:

We have witnessed these up and down trends with several other NFL teams, most notably the Panthers in recent seasons. Great one year, then below average, then great again. Jacksonville is hoping they follow the trend and return to dominance this season. Their defense is positioned to make it happen, as is the running game. Yet the AFC South appears just as strong as in 2018, unlike its down year in 2017. Where does this leave the Jacksonville Jaguars?

A team coming off a very bad season is supposed to get an easy schedule, but the Jaguars will have no such luck in 2019. Their division is very good and their travel schedule appears brutal. Jacksonville has multiple stretches on the road, traveling cross country and out of the country entirely.

Of their first nine games before a Week 10 bye, the Jaguars face only two “easy” opponents in Denver and Cincinnati. The Jets and Titans are wildcards in terms of strength, but so is Jacksonville itself. Facing its own division and the AFC West makes things difficult for a team on the rebound.

My instincts tell me the Jaguars will be formidable this season. I believe in the defense we saw back in 2017 and the unit which ranked sixth in 2018. A top-five defense this year makes Jacksonville a true AFC South contender because they now have Nick Foles.

There are two options for Foles this season. He either falls to Earth like Bortles last year or he plays at the same level which earned him his current contract. A fall to Earth spells the end of everything in Jacksonville. I’m an optimist, so I believe Foles continues to play at a high level.

The Jags don’t need him to be great. They need him to hold onto the football and lead the offense. I’d love to see Jacksonville use its top-10 pick on helping Foles, either on the offensive line or in the passing game. Drafting the best player available will add an instant difference maker to this football team. That should be enough to stack them alongside Houston and Indianapolis, with no obvious frontrunner.