Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Too good to ‘tank for Tua’?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been stuck at the bottom of the NFC South for years. Yet this team is improving fast. Are they too good to ‘tank for Tua’?

For a few seasons now, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been the worst team in a clearly impressive division. Since 2013, all three of the other squads in the NFC South have won division titles and double-digit victories multiple times. In that same time frame, Tampa Bay has finished last all but once.

It obviously remains to be seen if the 2019 NFL Draft will be the start of a turnaround for the Buccaneers. The jury is still out, even if you ask the draft experts. Sports Illustrated gave Tampa Bay an A- grade for one of the best drafts in the entire league. The Sporting News gave the same team a D, tied for the very worst in the NFL. No one can agree on where the Tampa Bay Buccaneers stand, so is this team too good to now join the race for 2020 to “tank for Tua”?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ first five selections in the 2019 NFL Draft all went to addressing the defensive side of the ball, and for good reason. Tampa was the very worst defense in the sport in 2018. Of course, much of that failure could be explained by injury.

The Buccaneers lost the most games due to injury (per Football Outsiders) of any team last season, and a lot of that carnage was felt on the defensive side of the ball. In fact, the roster was a solid fifth in offensive games lost but dead last by a wide margin defensively. According to Football Outsiders, that defensive mark shatters the all-time record of their database.

Health is not a skill. No team is consistently healthy or consistently injured over a sizable time frame. (This past season’s healthiest squad ranked 27th the year before, and the 27th team ranked sixth one year ago.) So Tampa could see positive regression defensively just from health, but adding talented prospects will obviously be helpful.

On offense, there are some things to like already in-house. OJ Howard is perhaps the fourth-best tight end in football. Mike Evans might rank somewhere similarly at wide receiver. There are major questions behind center, though, while no elite running back has unveiled himself and Jameis Winston continues to perplex. A shaky offensive line does neither position any favors either.

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A return to reasonable injury health will help this team succeed, but I don’t see a logical path out of the basement of the NFC South. Winston, Ronald Jones, Vita Vea and the rookies would all have to take a major step. There are actually a lot of former top picks on this roster (thanks to those numerous last-place finishes) but few have developed into star players. A team rarely overcomes that type of draft failure; Tampa is no exception, especially in the deep division in which it plays.

Dan Salem:

Drafting poorly is the nail in any team’s coffin, so until the Tampa Bay Buccaneers get multiple top picks right, they are going to keep losing. This is not to imply that all of their top draft picks have flamed out, but many have failed to become stars in the league. Several have even played great, but have failed to help their team actually win more football games. The Buccaneers are now left with a choice in regards to how they build for their future.

Here are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers first round picks since 2014, a full six years ,which constitutes more than a complete cycle in the NFL. Rookie contracts are generally four years, with a fifth-year option.

2014: Mike Evans, WR, 7th overall
2015: Jameis Winston, QB, 1st overall
2016: Vernon Hargreaves, CB, 11th overall
2017: O.J. Howard, TE, 19th overall
2018: Vita Vea, DT, 12th overall
2019: Devin White, LB, 5th overall

Tampa’s first round draft picks are split 50/50 between offense and defense. With all of the defensive injuries last year, that side of the football will likely be much better this season. Improvement from Hargreaves and Vea is a must, but the changes on the coaching staff will make a huge difference across the defense. The Buccaneers nailed the majority of their offensive skill position picks. So, basically, the future of this team comes back to Winston.

On paper Tampa Bay looks like a complete team ready to compete right now. A new head coach and coordinators can spark them into the playoffs…assuming that quarterback isn’t an issue. Winston has had trouble staying healthy and has played inconsistently over his NFL career. He does not appear to be the longterm answer for the Buccaneers, but he is getting another chance.

The first month of football games will be telling, because Tampa can easily bottom out for one of the top quarterbacks in 2020. They have a core in place. But if Winston shows improvement and keeps his team over .500 during the early part of the season, it will be tough to cast him aside. Winning now will be very appealing, even if it’s misguided.

I don’t believe Winston should remain the quarterback in Tampa Bay. He could use a fresh start or a season as a backup quarterback to help him start over. The Buccaneers can currently play with the other teams in their division, but to beat them requires consistency from their signal caller. It requires stability in the locker room. We’ve never seen either from Jameis Winston. “Tanking for Tua” might be the better option.