Will Oakland Raiders long rebuild pay off in 2019 season?

It’s no secret that the Oakland Raiders are executing a long-term rebuild of the franchise. Yet several star acquisitions may have accelerated the process. Will it pay off in the 2019 season?

Despite a reach at the top of the draft with the fourth overall selection, few rankings were vehemently against what the Oakland Raiders did in the 2019 NFL Draft. It helps that they had so many early-round picks stemming from the decimation of their roster the season prior. That has to factor into the value of a “good” draft, even if it took jettisoning a number of useful veterans to get there.

As with a lot of the teams who selected atop the draft, there are pieces to like here but everything will have to go right for the Raiders to make the playoffs this coming season.

The trade for Antonio Brown and the signing of Tyrell Williams beefs up the weapons for Derek Carr. Drafting Josh Jacobs was a key addition in front of Jalen Richard, even as fans continue to question using first-round picks on running backs. Trent Brown should be important as well. With so many key pieces joining this rebuilding franchise, will they all pay off in the 2019 season?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the Oakland Raiders in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

The offense wasn’t the only side of the ball getting an overhaul. On defense, the Oakland Raiders made numerous additions too, both through the draft and free agency. I feel conflicted though about giving Gruden and Mayock too much credit. It’s easy to be the most improved team in the NFL when you shred the roster down to bare bones the season prior. What are we talking about here? Oakland jumping from one of the weakest rosters in the sport to the middle of the pack?

The AFC West is perhaps the toughest division in football. To make matters worse, the Raiders are set to have the toughest schedule in the sport despite coming off that last-place finish.

Gruden’s plan was to dump high-salary veterans and replace them with rookies. He also wanted to clean house with a lot of what the past front office brought in. This clearing only works if the young players added develop fast, especially to keep pace with the peaks of Brown, Carr, etc.

In recent years, the Raiders’ top picks have not developed fast, or at all really. These were before this current front office, but regardless, it is hard to overcome failed top picks across multiple drafts. The 2018 draft picks are still up in the air, but it doesn’t look like anyone besides Gareon Conley is going to be around from the previous few drafts. For example, the team already declined the fifth-year option on Karl Joseph and seemed to draft his replacement in the same offseason.

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I could potentially see Oakland doubling its win total this year and still comfortably missing the playoffs. I could see the roster not meshing well and Carr struggling to optimize his pieces on offense, leading to another below-.500 season. I could even imagine the team bottoming out and Brown checking out.

After all, Jared Cook was arguably the team’s best player from a year ago, and he went elsewhere. That’s the level of roster we are talking about being one year removed from. The only outcome that feels implausible is Oakland making the playoffs in front of Kansas City, Los Angeles and Denver. Could be a fun fantasy roster, though!

Dan Salem:

Perhaps this is Jon Gruden’s 10-year plan in action since the Oakland Raiders signed up for a decade of his leadership. But adding a player like Brown contradicts that logic. Having Carr under center, who was a franchise quarterback not that long ago, negates the logic of playing the long game. Getting younger and cheaper is smart football, but hemorrhaging the present when it includes Pro Bowl talent is not. Are we talking about the New York Giants or Raiders? Potato, pot-ah-to.

This has become a trend in the NFL, since it’s painfully obvious that a team’s window to win must include star players on their rookie deals. You need cheap superstars and you have five years or less to win with them. To truly capitalize on this, a team must have a star quarterback on the cheap.

New England is the exception, not the rule. Philadelphia is the rule, having played its hand perfectly with a backup quarterback who replaced their cheap starter with ease. Everyone wants to replicate this and decimating your old and pricey roster is a great place to start. Can we actually credit the Raiders with taking this course of action?

Oakland gutted its roster and acquired a ton of draft picks this year because of it. That’s very good. Gruden has confidence in his ability to evaluate talent and develop it on the field. He has built a young team around a veteran quarterback on his last chance. But a few star rookie quarterbacks loom in the 2020 draft, so another bad season would set Oakland up nicely to secure its final piece of the puzzle and grab a cheap rookie passer.

The issue is the addition of Antonio Brown, because it contradicts this philosophy. Yet Brown came cheap, at fire-sale prices. It’s easy to argue that he was too good to pass up, even if the team squanders a few seasons with him.

My instincts tell me that Oakland doesn’t care how this season goes. They are building a winner for year one in Las Vegas. They can get a cheap rookie quarterback for 2020, assuming they stink again. But if they don’t stink, that means the current rookies played great immediately. That means Carr returned to form and Gruden has a potent offense with Brown. It means the plan came to fruition earlier, but might not last as long with Carr leading the charge.

This is a good problem to have. Either way, the new Las Vegas Raiders will be riding a bus full of hope into their new stadium in the desert. Fans are getting a raw deal now, but the team is jettisoning them anyhow.