Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson will not be playing at age 45

First Tom Brady, now Russell Wilson. The Seattle Seahawks quarterback said in a recent interview he plans to play until he’s 45 years old — but don’t count on it.

A declaration of intent, like the one Russell Wilson issued last week, is a bold and somewhat honorable proclamation to make. That being said, there’s no sense in the Seattle Seahawks star quarterback saying he intends to play to 45.

Sure, it might grab headlines, but there’s not really a shot of Wilson reaching that mark. The full interview in which Wilson revealed his intentions was conducted by NFL.com’s Michael Silver.

Here’s some more context for what Wilson said:

"“Seven years has gone by so fast,” Wilson said. “You think about just turning 30 years and what I have for the rest of my career — for the next 10-15 years — I’m just fired up about it. You think about some of the best quarterbacks of all time, guys like Drew (Brees), guys like Tom (Brady), who (are playing into their 40s). I really look up to those guys. There’s so much more to do.”"

Wilson goes on to confirm that by saying he wants to play for 15 for years, he means he wants to play until 45 years old. Now, I have absolutely no problem with Wilson saying he wants to play until he’s 45. You’re in a pretty good spot if you have the chance to make that one of your life goals.

However, I think we’re all not buying the idea that he’ll actually play another 15 seasons in the NFL. For reference, Tom Brady is only going on his age-42 season, which will put him past Brett Favre, who retired after his age-41 season. Drew Brees is entering his age-40 season, which will be one more year than Peyton Manning got.

If you want a representation of a player in his mid-40s, though, look at kicker Adam Vinatieri, who just finished his age-46 season and is coming back for another go. Historically, great kickers like Vinatieri are the only players who either don’t choose to retire or aren’t forced to retire by their mid-40s.

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Even an iron man such as Favre was done at 41 years old and his final season was disastrous, despite the fact that he went to the Pro Bowl the previous year. Manning was the same way. He was the league MVP in 2013 when he broke tons of records, then he had another Pro Bowl year in 2014. But he only started nine games in 2015 (his final season at age 39).

So far, both Brady and Brees are going strong, but they could both suffer the same dramatic regression that Farve and Manning did at any time. It could happen this year, next year or maybe Brady will just throw out the rule book again and play until 45 years old. These things are highly unpredictable. So, while it’s impossible to say that Wilson won’t play until he’s 45, we can look back and check out some historical examples of quarterbacks who played into their mid-40s.

A handful of quarterbacks have played in the NFL at age 44, but they have very limited success. George Blanda is the guy many people would turn to in this debate, but he never threw for more than 1,000 yards past the age of 39, so he’s not really relevant for this discussion.

Steve DeBerg retired after his age 39 season but then he came back at 44 and saw action in eight games, but with only one start. Former Seahawk Warren Moon also made it to 44. Unfortunately, his final season as a full-time starter came when he was 42. Vinny Testaverde played all over the NFL during his career and he was actually the most successful 44-year old quarterback, making six starts and recording 952 passing yards.

Besides quarterbacks historically not making it to 45 years old, Wilson is also at a disadvantage because of the number of hits he takes. Through his first seven seasons, he has been sacked 299 times, which means he’s been dropped just under 43 times per season.

By comparison, Brady has only been sacked about 28 times per season, and that’s not including the 2000 and 2008 seasons when he played in a combined two games. Even Favre was only sacked 27.5 times per season when he was a starter. Brees has been sacked even less often, only 23 times per season during his 17 years as a starter.

Manning had it the best though, only being sacked 17.8 times per season. In his 17-year career, Manning was sacked a total of 303 times. Wilson is already at 299 after just seven seasons! That’s an insane difference that will impact his health and longevity down the line. Not even Ben Roethlisberger was sacked that many times in his first seven seasons, and he was notorious for holding the ball too long.

Alright, so maybe I took Wilson’s comments a little too seriously. Plenty of players have said they plan to play for long periods of time in the past, but it’s worth pointing out that, so far, playing to 45 as a quarterback has been borderline unreachable. Even the players who have gotten close have been backups and shadows of their former selves. On top of that, while Wilson is a great quarterback, he hasn’t been well protected his first seven seasons and that usually translates to shorter careers.

It’s great to have a goal, but this one might be unattainable for Wilson.