Is Jimmy Garoppolo a true NFL MVP candidate in 2019?

With only 10 career starts, Jimmy Garoppolo is the ultimate unknown. Every time he steps on the field, he dominates. Is he a true NFL MVP candidate for 2019?

There are few constants in the NFL. Rosters turn over every season. Winners become losers and vice versa. The standings become jumbled each and every year. Individually, things are usually more stable for the veterans in this league, but not always. In the category of having no idea what to expect this year is San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Garoppolo is apparently 40-1 to win NFL MVP in the 2019 season, which somehow seems simultaneously far too high and far too low. He is a relatively young and talented passer with spurts of pure brilliance in his past. He is also a 27-year old coming off a torn ACL with just 10 career starts.

His 40-1 odds to win MVP are insane… We just aren’t sure in which direction. Is Jimmy Garoppolo a true NFL MVP candidate this season?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate Jimmy Garoppolo in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

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Todd Salem:

The love for Garoppolo began in 2016, when he was given a bit of a chance to see the field for the New England Patriots and made the most of it, accumulating a 113.3 quarterback rating in that limited sample. The next season, his first in San Francisco, he went 5-0 in his five starts and put up pretty good numbers to boot. Though the figures didn’t blow anyone away, the 7-0 start to his career certainly caught fans’ eyes.

Garoppolo seemed to take a slight step back in 2018 before going down with the knee injury that sapped him of most of the season. But in general, we still don’t have a large enough sample of games to know what he is as an NFL quarterback. For comparison, Josh Allen, a 23-year old coming off his rookie season who most analysts thought was too erratic and raw to play right away, already has more career starts (11 to 10).

I would rather have Garoppolo leading my team over Allen, but I’m not exactly sure that’s the right opinion. I would also say that this is the make-or-break season for Jimmy G, but that also isn’t true. If he doesn’t get hurt, this will be the first full season he’s ever played. That makes 2019 a first impression, not a last decision.

Since his name has been around a while, he’s a veteran in our minds but still an inexperienced player on the field. That actually bodes well for improvement or living up to previous heights, if he stays healthy. And it doesn’t make any sense to predict injuries here.

There’s nothing chronic about a torn ACL. A healthy Garoppolo puts San Francisco in the playoff hunt thanks to a talented defense and skill player depth on offense. An elite Garoppolo pushes the team somewhere else. It’s hard to expect him to be a top-10 quarterback, but it also wouldn’t be outlandish to see it happen.

Dan Salem:

Those MVP odds are quite tempting, but it would shock me if Jimmy Garoppolo wins the award this season. As you noted, he is about to play his first full season in the NFL. While Garoppolo is not a rookie, technically he’s still playing his rookie season, if we count the first 16 games of one’s career as their rookie slate. I expect him to play well, but the rest of the 49ers will determine just how good he can be.

San Francisco was bad last year, due in part to Garoppolo’s injury. But we can’t expect them to suddenly be great if he stays healthy. The NFC West is strong outside of Arizona, and the conference is even stronger. Improving upon last year is very likely, but I’m not sure anyone will accept less than a playoff berth in regards to success.

Coming off an ACL injury scares me, because it limits Garoppolo’s mobility. We saw how Carson Wentz took time to find his feet after his own injury. Garoppolo isn’t going to just run back onto the field and be his old self. We must have patience and temper expectations accordingly.

The top 10 of quarterbacks is too high for Garoppolo this season. We have too many second- and third-year quarterbacks ready to make “the leap.” Some are going to do it. We also have high expectations for our current 10 best quarterbacks. None are expected to tail off.

Age will rear its head eventually, making room for fresh faces in the quarterback elite. Until then, Garoppolo is fighting an uphill battle. He has to prove himself again, while simultaneously proving he can be a consistent quarterback.

I expect Jimmy Garoppolo to have an excellent season. Much like Deshaun Watson last year, Garoppolo is re-joining a talented team. Watson had a great season cut short by injury. We didn’t know if what we saw was a flash in the pan, or the real player. We also didn’t know if the injury would hold Watson back.

The same questions now surround Garoppolo. Lucky for him, the 49ers should also have a very good defense. They have low expectations as well. Those NFL MVP odds feel just right, because he has a shot at it. It’s not a great shot, but its better than most right now.