Will Cam Newton return to MVP form or succumb to injury?

By all metrics, Cam Newton is a great quarterback. But last season left a sour taste in everyone’s mouth and Newton sidelined with another shoulder injury. Will he return to MVP form in 2019 or succumb to his injury?

There are few constants in the NFL. Rosters turn over every season. Winners become losers and vice versa. The standings become jumbled each and every year. Individually, things are usually more stable for the veterans in this league, but not always. In the category of having no idea what to expect this year is Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton.

Newton is a former league MVP. It is easy to forget that after the way he finished off last season in the midst of a putrid Panthers collapse. But even odder is that it’s hard to remember the way he started last season. Carolina famously lost seven games in a row between Weeks 10 and 16. Newton’s tumble followed on a bit of a delay. The final quarter of his 2018 regular season was a disaster.

Will Cam Newton return to MVP form, or finally succumb to injury in 2019?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate Cam Newton in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

To finish out last season, Newton lost all three games he played before being shut down with a shoulder injury. He had a 2:6 touchdown:interception ratio and never had a passer rating above 70. He was also sacked nine times in those three games before finishing the year on the bench

. He was obviously compromised physically and couldn’t make the plays we have come to expect from him. The interesting thing is that Newton was playing really good football before that, even as his shoulder ailed and, eventually, his team continued to lose ballgames.

In the first 12 weeks of the season, Newton had a 22:7 touchdown:interception ratio, had a quarterback rating above 75 in all 11 contests (and above 100 in eight of 11), and even completed more than two-thirds of his pass attempts in seven of those games. He was straight rolling.

But something seemed off still. Newton wasn’t running very much, was loose with the football when he did run, wasn’t slinging the ball around like normal, and the team began that slide around him. The end numbers look good. In fact, Panthers Wire rated it as Newton’s third-best season ever. But it didn’t feel that way when it was taking place.

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Entering 2019, there are really only two options for Carolina. Either Newton is still compromised physically, and the Panthers will not be a playoff team or he is back to 100 percent, and they should challenge for the NFC South crown. Newton has such a large impact that I don’t foresee any logical in-between outcome.

There are more details than that. Scouts like the skill players who have accumulated around Newton. The defense has elite talent at all three levels. Carolina was very unlucky last season with injuries and its record in one-score games. Both metrics normalize in a large enough sample.

Those are all pieces that could imply a bounce back. But, really, do any of them matter if Newton can’t unleash his arm? Even worse, what’s the outlook if rookie Will Grier needs to play Week 1? It’s boring and hard to handicap, but this all comes down to Cam’s health.

Dan Salem:

I’ve mentioned this before, because I find it infinitely fascinating. There may be nothing to it, but the facts are the facts. Ron Rivera and Cam Newton have been on a roller coaster together since season one in 2011. Carolina has literally flip-flopped between winning 10+ games and a losing season every year over the last six years.

Newton posted a losing record in his first two seasons, then finally broke into the double-digit wins category in 2013 with 12 victories. Since then, it’s been wild. Losing record in 2014 (despite winning the division) followed by 15 wins in 2015, then a losing record in 2016 followed by 11 wins in 2017, ending with a losing record last season.

What does this mean? Does Newton’s health have any bearing on the trend that is etched in stone over the course of his career? If statistics mean anything, then Carolina will win at least 10 games this season. Newton’s win/loss record is incredibly consistent. I agree that the health of his shoulder must be monitored closely, but he has come back from this same injury before.

It’s probably a bad thing that this is Newton’s second shoulder surgery in as many years, but he came back strong the first time. Yes, he injured it again. But I’m confident he will be back by early October, playing like his old self. The first month of the season is the extended preseason. I don’t consider what happens in September to be anything more than noise. The games count, but the football is still unrefined. Newton has plenty of time to get back on the field at full strength.

Consider for a moment that I’m wrong. This is an injury that won’t go away, so Newton returns and plays through minor discomfort or at less than 100 percent of his old abilities. Eventually this “running quarterback” was going to have to evolve his game to have longevity in the NFL. Every player does it. Tom Brady plays completely different now.

Cam Newton was great last year while injured, until he could no longer hold it together. He’s proven himself great enough to evolve and adapt. The unfortunate thing is the historical evidence, because the Panthers are destined for another losing season in 2020. Numbers don’t lie.