NFL Predictions 2019: Jacksonville Jaguars will go worst to first

This incredible phenomenon is now routine, but nailing NFL predictions for 2019 is still hard. The Jacksonville Jaguars are a lock to go worst to first but who else can do the same?

Who is going to shock the league this year by moving from last place to first place within their division? Okay, so shock the league might be strong. This happens every season, which is why we do the exercise. Someone is going to make a huge jump; perhaps multiple teams. We just have to figure out who it will be. These are your NFL predictions for 2019.

Last year, the Houston Texans made the jump from last to first in the AFC South. The Chicago Bears also did so in the NFC North. Who will it be in 2019? We’ve reached a consensus on the Jacksonville Jaguars, and if we bend the rules a little, the Green Bay Packers will also pull off the improbable.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL predictions for 2019 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

I’m ruling out the New York Jets immediately. I think they could easily jump into second place, but it is hard to imagine them winning the division, for obvious reasons. Until it happens, it ain’t going to happen.

The Cincinnati Bengals are also out. The AFC North is certainly up in the air — but between all three other teams. Cincy isn’t involved. The same goes for Oakland in the AFC West. I can see the other three teams doing well and leaving the Raiders behind. That leaves the AFC South (again). More on it in a second.

Looking at the NFC, this exercise almost becomes too easy. The Giants and Cardinals are not ready to compete, regardless of division. Meanwhile, the Lions and Buccaneers are tiers behind their divisional brethren. Perhaps in another division, in another season; but not in 2019. That quick change brings us back to the AFC South, where the Jacksonville Jaguars went 5-11 to finish in last place this past season.

The Jaguars’ division is not going to be easy. On the contrary, all four teams look like they could be pretty good. But that makes Jacksonville the easy answer. It looks like it should bounce back to being a pretty good team this year, opening up the door for a division title in a competitive division. Worst-to-first normally sounds like quite an achievement. With the Jaguars this season, though, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all.

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Getting into the particulars, they still had a really good defense last year. It didn’t perform as well as in 2017, but that’s a hard hill to climb. In 2017, the Jaguars were head and shoulders above everybody else defensively. In 2018, they were merely one of the best clubs. If they settle into that zone or even see some positive regression, this is an elite grouping.

Offensively is really where strides can be made. The flip from Blake Bortles to Nick Foles alone could be worth multiple wins, even if Foles isn’t the playoff hero he was in Philadelphia. A healthy Leonard Fournette moves back into the fold as well.

Health could foil this plot, as could a shaky offensive line performance. But if forced to choose, Jacksonville feels like an obvious answer to this question. Do you see things differently?

Dan Salem:

This is most certainly going to happen, and if last season is any indication, then two teams will go from worst to first in the most general sense. There are only a select few realistic options this season, although I’m not sure many people saw the Bears coming in 2018.

I’d like to bend the rules a little and add the Green Bay Packers to the list of potential teams, as they finished a mere half-game ahead Detroit due to a tie. I’ll give you my NFL predictions for 2019 first, then my reasons for eliminating the competition.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in prime position to make the leap this season. We agree completely on their potential and the open nature of the AFC South division. Although it’s very strong, the Jaguars defense can push them to the top of the ranks. I won’t repeat what you said, so let’s just leave ourselves in agreement.

The second team to jump from worst to first, because I believe two teams will do it, is not so easy to pinpoint. Green Bay is in a great spot to make the leap, with our rules amendment in place, as are the New York Jets. But both teams need some serious help from their division rivals.

New York needs for Tom Brady to hit the wall that everyone expects will spell the end of his career. If Brady’s age starts showing, then New England will be vulnerable and become a 10-6 or 9-7 football team. This allows the Jets to seize the division by winning at least 10 games and beating the Patriots head to head.

If it feels like I’m talking myself into this, it’s because I am. We aren’t there yet in 2019.

The Green Bay Packers can make the leap from almost-worst to first. Aaron Rodgers is out to prove himself with a new offense and a new head coach. The Packers added a ton to their defense this offseason, and the NFC North division is full of questions. I like the Vikings, but don’t know how dominant they will remain this season. Chicago has a hill to climb in order to stay dominant as well. Both teams relied on defense to win last year, meaning their offenses have work to do.

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Green Bay can beat them with its own solid defense, because we know what Rodgers will do on offense. This is not a stretch, and it qualifies in my book because the Packers were 6-9-1 last season, while Detroit had a 6-10 record.

As for the other last-place finishers from a season ago, it’s hard to imagine any of them seriously competing within their divisions in 2019. Tampa Bay could be decent, but the NFC South is a behemoth. Arizona and the Giants are at least a season away from serious competition. It’s possible New York shoots up the standings, but that would take a series of unfortunate events for Philadelphia and Dallas. I don’t believe in Detroit, nor do I believe in Oakland or Cincinnati.

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