Fantasy Football 2019: Which top rookie is a must draft?

The top rookies in fantasy football won’t last long on draft day, so which player is a must draft? Who’s a sleeper candidate and how bold are you feeling about their prospects?

The NFL Draft feels so long ago. There is such build-up and analysis to the event that, afterward, it always feels like a let down. As the weeks pass, the feeling gets even worse. Some of these rookies won’t be a factor at all in their first seasons, let alone in fantasy football for 2019. They may not even see the field for anything beyond special teams.

It is hard to know which rookies will thrive and which will succumb to the pressures/rigors of the professional ranks. There is a lot to learn, even beyond having the skills to succeed. That makes finding successful rookies for fantasy football 2019 even harder.

We are only concerned about offensive skill players when it comes to fantasy. Beyond that, regardless of position, rookie production is so finicky.

Perhaps the most important projection is that of playing time. We need our rookies to see the field a lot. From there, production will come or it won’t, but we know the alternative offers no upside whatsoever. Which of the top rookies in fantasy football 2019 is a must draft? Are there any sleepers?

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate fantasy football in 2019 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Here are (most of) the top fantasy rookies:

QB – Kyler Murray
RB – Damien Harris, Darrell Henderson, Justice Hill, Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary
WR – JJ Arcega-Whiteside, AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, Parris Campbell, Mecole Hardman, N’Keal Harry, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel
TE – Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson

Obviously, other rookies may break onto the scene. Those who were under the radar could explode. Others with no route to playing time could see injuries in front of them on the depth chart. Currently, according to average draft position on ESPN, the top five rookies in drafts (in order) are: Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery, Miles Sanders, Darrell Henderson and Kyler Murray. In a close sixth is N’Keal Harry, the first rookie receiver off the board.

Todd Salem:

In my humble opinion, there is a huge gap between Jacobs and the rest of the first-years. There is also a huge gap between running backs up for consideration and the other positions. This checks out in my mind. I can never trust rookie pass-catchers, and unless I’m a huge believer, quarterback is a wild card. The massive rookie class of quarterbacks last year still produced mostly heartbreak in year one. I don’t expect Murray to break the mold.

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You like rookie receivers more than me. I don’t expect to be drafting any. I also don’t like Miles Sanders despite his high stock. There is too much depth at running back for Philadelphia. How does he possibly get enough snaps to become useful right away?

I could be talked into Henderson finding playing time with a likely snap count placed on Todd Gurley in Los Angeles. But even that feels like a reach, at least to start the season. Montgomery is the guy I like the most.

He and Jacobs are quite similar. They have similar size and frame. Neither has top-end speed but can show elusiveness with the ball. They both offer help in the passing game but already have teammates who excel in such spots. The main difference I see is what it will cost to draft each guy.

Montgomery’s ADP is quite a bit lower than Jacobs’. I don’t foresee myself being able to draft Jacobs in any league if he’s going in the fourth round. But Montgomery in the seventh or eighth is much more palatable. He is my favorite fantasy rookie.

Dan Salem:

This is always tricky for me. I love to bite on a single rookie who jumps out at me each fantasy football season. I hit with Ezekiel Elliott several years ago, and nailed Calvin Ridley last season. Although Ridley was nowhere near a No. 1 receiver, he had many big games and is poised to be even more impact-full this season. Because I can keep him at cost, he’s now a bargain.

Usually I shy away from quarterbacks, except as a late round flyer. This season I’m targeting the running back position in our 2019 fantasy football rookie class.

Josh Jacobs plays for the Oakland Raiders. David Montgomery plays for the Chicago Bears. One of those two teams are likely going to be very good, while the other is completely unknown. Both players are currently listed as the starting running back for their respective teams, yet the Bears list two starters, while Oakland carries a fullback instead. This subtle distinction makes all the difference.

Jacobs is my pick for top fantasy football rookie. Most people tend to agree, since he’s being drafted first among rookies. But this distinction is well earned. There is no one else on the Raiders competing with him for playing time right now.

Plus, I love that Oakland utilizes the fullback position. This is always good news for your running back. Antonio Brown will also take pressure off Jacobs, garnering extra attention from opposing defenses. Oakland may or may not be very good, but Derek Carr is decent and Jacobs will get a ton of opportunities.

I also understand the love for Montgomery, but Chicago’s offense scares me a bit more. Its unclear to me what the Bears will get from Mitch Trubisky this season. Mike Davis and Tarik Cohen are also viable running backs who will steal carries from Montgomery. Davis is listed as RB1 as well, so a timeshare is already planned. If I’m going to draft a rookie running back, I want to know he’ll get the bulk of the workload.

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I must admit that N’Keal Harry certainly intrigues me. The New England Patriots are particularly thin at wide receiver. Rob Gronkowski has retired, leaving Tom Brady with a need for someone new to throw to. Harry is already listed as WR1 for New England, ahead of Demaryius Thomas. Julian Edelman is sidelined for now as well, so Harry is a great player to take a flyer on. Snatch him up on the cheap if you can.

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