Fantasy Football 2019: Impact of Tampa Bay Buccaneers coaching changes

After making Dirk Koetter walk the plank, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought in Bruce Arians and Byron Leftwich to captain a ship loaded with offensive weapons. What are the fantasy football fortunes of this year’s Pewter Crew?

Fantasy football owners are always on the lookout for an edge over the competition. In a series of articles exploring the impact of new coaching hires, we’ve previously analyzed the fantasy prospects of the following teams:

15. Cleveland Browns, 14. Washington Redskins, 13. Baltimore Ravens, 12. Denver Broncos, 11. Tennessee Titans

In order to satisfy the appetite for insight, we now sail into Tampa Bay in search of new nuggets of knowledge to plunder.

Time to go below deck and see what the Buccaneers have to offer fantasy owners.

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Head Coach: Bruce Arians, New Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich

New head coach Bruce Arians imports his famous “no risk it, no biscuit” philosophy to the Buccaneers this season. In terms of expected outcomes, this doesn’t seem like a massive departure from the Dirk Koetter/Todd Monken system that finished first in the NFL in passing yards, tied for third in touchdowns, and led the league in interceptions thrown.

During his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Arians has engineered offenses that placed above the NFL median for total yards in seven of his last nine seasons. His teams have finished top 12 or better in five of the past seven. Arians’ new right-hand man, Byron Leftwich, was much more effective as an offensive coordinator in Arizona than his predecessor Mike McCoy, but that’s not saying much.

The Cardinals experienced a modest, yet statistically significant improvement after replacing McCoy with Leftwich in October: the team saw improvements of 16.7 percent in yards per game, and 12.2 percent in points scored. Yet, the Cardinals still finished the season as one of the worst offenses the league had seen in recent years, despite Leftwich calling plays for the last nine contests.

Leftwich showed flashes as a play-caller, but still has much to learn from Arians, who will direct the show in Tampa. Thankfully, the Buccaneers offer their two new coaches a few tools they lacked in recent years in Arizona: a better (but hardly stellar) offensive line, better depth at wide receiver, and a bona fide threat at the tight end position.

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While team colors have changed for these two new Bucs coaches, one constant remains: a question mark at the quarterback position. Last season, Josh Rosen didn’t work out in Arizona behind an atrocious offensive line; he never seemed to recover from an abysmal start under McCoy on a team that headed nowhere fast.

Meanwhile, in Tampa Bay, quarterback Jameis Winston wrestled the starting job away from journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick, but only after losing it in the first place. Winston has since stopped eating Ws before games and, after a rocky battle with immaturity during the early part of his career, has shown signs of maturity by saying and doing all the right things, according to Kevin O’Donnell of FOX13.

Winston is interesting fit for an Arians system, perhaps and ideal one. He has been notably turnover prone, but has never shied away from making spectacular plays ever since his college days at Florida State.

Winston will become an unrestricted free agent after this season, and fantasy experts are keenly aware of the upside he offers in his make-or-break season. Some even have him ranked as a top-10 fantasy quarterback for 2019.

It’s no secret that an Arians offense is a boon for the passing game, but few fantasy football owners are aware of the kind of production that running backs typically produce in his systems. Consider Arians’ running back resume, dating back to his years in Pittsburgh:

• 2007: Willie Parker amassed 1,480 yards from scrimmage, while Najeh Davenport offered fantasy relevance as a flex play with 683 total yards and seven touchdowns.
• 2008: The forgotten Mewelde Moore totaled 908 yards through the air and on the ground (yes, you read that right) and crossed the stripe a half-dozen times. “Fast Willie” chipped in another 804 yards and five touchdowns.
• 2009-11: Rashard Mendenhall posted three straight seasons with 1,000+ total yards and eight-plus touchdowns.
• 2012: Vick Ballard (remember him?) accumulated 966 total yards, yet Donald Brown still garnered 117 touches.
• 2013: Mendhenhall and Andre Ellington each saw over 150 touches. They combined for 1,824 total yards, with each crossing the 800 yard threshold.
• 2014: Ellington had over 1,000 total yards and five touchdowns on almost 250 touches.
• 2015: In David Johnson’s first season, he crossed the 1000 total yard mark and scored 12 touchdowns. Meanwhile, the remnants of Chris Johnson accrued 872 total yards.
• 2016: Johnson posted a year for the ages: 2,118 total yards and 20 touchdowns as a true feature back.
• 2017: After Johnson’s injury, the position was a revolving door before Adrian Peterson collected 514 yards in six games, which prorates to 1,370 over a 16 game season.

Last year, Ronald Jones had a rookie season to forget in Tampa Bay, but he is impressing the coaching staff so far this season. According to the team’s website, the second-year back out of USC has been the Buccaneers’ most improved player so far in camp after dedicating his offseason to strength conditioning and playbook study.

Meanwhile, Arians made it clear to David Harrison and other beat reporters from the start: he likes what he has in Peyton Barber, the incumbent leader of an uninspiring ground game. Mark Inabinett of AL.com reports that Barber has stayed hungry, while The Pewter Plank expert Cory Kinnan counts himself among those who view Barber as the biggest fantasy sleeper on the entire team.

Throughout the timeline outlined above, the following receiver duos appeared in Arians’ offenses: Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace, Reggie Wayne and T.Y. Hilton, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd/John Brown.

Considering that Arians running backs have offered value despite the presence of this caliber of wideouts, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility for both Jones and Barber to offer fantasy value in an offense that features Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, especially given the presence of O.J. Howard to keep defenses honest.

Both Jones and Barber can be had in the later rounds of 12-team PPR drafts. Jones is typically going off the board in the ninth round due to abundant positive reports, while Barber is lasting until the late 10th/early 11th. Jones offers more athleticism and upside, but after his abysmal 2018 campaign, Barber is the one offering a safer floor.

Both are rosterable considering where they’re being drafted and the roles fantasy owners expect them to play on their teams this season on the heels of Arians’ recent comments. Per Greg Auman:

Fantasy football owners who want the most valuable pieces of this offense will need to draft Evans, Godwin, and Howard much earlier. Evans is a legitimate WR1 in any format, and is going off the board in the second round. Godwin, a top 20 wide receiver, is lasting until the fourth or fifth round and O.J. Howard, a consensus top five tight end, isn’t far behind (5.10 overall).

Other late rounders and waiver wire wonders to watch include rookie running back Bruce Anderson and veteran tight end Cameron Brate, who has quietly racked up six or more touchdowns for three straight seasons. Even wide receiver Breshad Perriman, a perennial candidate on such lists who hasn’t stayed healthy long enough to put it all together, could become fantasy relevant in the event of injury to Evans or Godwin.

The Buccaneers project to be a better team than last year, but another 10-loss season seems more likely than a .500 mark given the presence of the Saints, Falcons, and Panthers in a stacked division. Fantasy football owners should prepare for a rise in both running back and tight end utilization while expecting a more efficient, high-volume passing game that will continue to “risk it for biscuits.”