Our group of second-year NFL head coaches is a who’s who of first-year success. Nearly all exceeded expectations. Will they slump or shine in the 2019 season?
The other day, we delved into the brand new NFL head coaches about to lead their very first game. First-year coaches get all the publicity because they are an unknown. But we still know very little about second-year NFL head coaches. They are a forgotten group. They are too inexperienced to have a feeling about, but they aren’t a novelty anymore either.
Our group of second-year coaches found pretty remarkable success in 2018. Matt Nagy won 12 games in Chicago. Frank Reich won 10 in Indianapolis. Mike Vrabel went 9-7 for Tennessee. Matt Patricia, Pat Shurmur and Jon Gruden didn’t do as well, but the group as a whole was quite impressive. How should we feel about this bunch one year later? Will they slump or shine in the 2019 season?
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL head coaches in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
Todd Salem:
Gruden and Patricia were the ones who worried me the most after last season. It seemed like Gruden was out of his element or lost in some grand scheme, while Patricia was trying to implement standards at odds with his roster.
I don’t feel quite as down on either guy now, though. It seems like Gruden may indeed have a grand scheme, but he has the time and patience to shape his roster the way he sees fit. We’ll have to see how things play out in years three through the end even more than this upcoming season.
As for Patricia, he reportedly is toning down his antics from last year. If he is open to course-correcting what went wrong, the Lions have to feel good about that. Next needs to come success on the field, but Detroit is trending in the right direction from a leadership standpoint.
The successful year-two coaches will find it hard to change what wasn’t broken, but standing pat could be a mistake. Nagy was great, but his offense wasn’t. And he’s supposed to be an offensive guy. Reich was just as great, but adjustments will need to be made.
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As for Vrabel, he may have the least pressure on him of anyone. Everyone feels like the Titans overachieved to get to nine wins and, thus, regression is coming. If Vrabel falls victim to a down year, it was expected. If, however, he manages to keep this team in the playoff hunt in a deep division, it may be more thanks to his coaching than any other single point.
We normally attribute too much impact to coaches because it is hard to know what they actually affect. If the Bears regress in 2019, is it because Nagy lost his touch? Or was Nagy not really deserving of Coach of the Year in the first place, and the team’s defense simply put together a historic season under Vic Fangio (who, by the way, got a head coaching gig out of the performance)?
The second year gives us that clearer glimpse of what a coach can do in certain situations. If the Bears and Titans don’t regress, we know the coaching is doing something right. I’m not sure any other situation gives us that picture.
There’d be built-in excuses for every other franchise. Andrew Luck is gone, so what could Reich have done? Gruden isn’t playing for this year. Shurmur is on a long-term outlook, etc.
Dan Salem:
Coaching has a major impact on an NFL team, especially after the first “honeymoon” season is over. Our second-year NFL head coaches all have reason so smile, with no significant pressure on any of them in terms of job security. They will all get a year three, no matter what happens. Yet, I’m worried about Patricia and Shurmur the most entering year two.
The Lions have a proven franchise quarterback and cannot continue to slow roll a rebuild, wasting valuable Matthew Stafford years in the process. Last season was forgivable, being year one under Patricia. But this season must put Detroit in the playoff conversation.
Patricia’s defense has to excel, since this was supposed to be his forte. Unfortunately, I don’t see the Lions being good enough to fend off its division rivals, let alone sniff a playoff spot. This puts Patricia in a tough spot. Hopefully Detroit gives him time to mold a winner, but wasting Stafford makes no sense. What do you do when your rebuilding team has a franchise quarterback? Is a trade looming?
I like what Shurmur is doing in New York, but I worry for him this season. The previous Giants’ head coach egregiously botched what Shurmur is being asked to do, send Eli Manning off into the sunset. Last time, there was no highly-touted rookie to replace Manning, but the decision needed to be made. It cost that coach his job.
Now, Shurmur must insert Daniel Jones — at some point. Giants’ fans want to see Manning take them all the way in one final ride off into the sunset. This is highly unlikely, yet the sentiment is still there. They LOVE Manning and if he’s playing well, it will be hard to justify a switch. Lucky for Shurmur, he has the best young running back in the sport. Distractions always help.
As for our other second-year NFL head coaches, they all seem to have earned a pass this season. Vrabel overachieved, so he has a gimme year ahead. No one expects much from his team once again and Vrabel’s decision regarding Marcus Mariota will likely be made easy by Mariota’s play. There’s no love lost there from the fans.
Reich gets a pass because his star quarterback retired. Nagy gets a pass because the Bears overachieved last season as well. His team likely wins a few less games, simply because statistics tend to even out and Chicago’s were heavily in their own favor last season. As you noted, year three will be telling for all of these men. I’m excited to see how expectations will shift after another season of football.