NFL Week 1, 2019: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

Speculation abounds before NFL Week 1 and the lines are just as screwy. Pick against the known losers and risk nothing. Your best picks against the spread (ATS).

Another NFL season kicks off this Thursday. The first game of the year sees the Green Bay Packers in an unlikely underdog role against the Chicago Bears. As with last year, we will each pick two games against the spread each week. Consider these your four best picks ATS. And as with last year, we will try our darnedest to never, ever pick a team playing on Thursday night!

We were neck-and-neck last regular season, but Todd took it to Dan in the playoffs…where it matters most! Okay, not really. When it comes to gambling, the daily wager is just as important as the conference title game if you want it to be. These are your best picks ATS for NFL Week 1. All lines come via Bovada.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 1 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Last Season’s Record ATS

Dan Salem’s 2018 record (including playoffs): 24-21-1
Todd Salem’s 2018 record (including playoffs): 28-18

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Atlanta Falcons +4 at Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta suffered from the injury bug last year, specifically on defense. The Falcons were down a number of star players. This shouldn’t be the 31st-ranked defense again in 2019. A defensive uptick should push them back into the playoff hunt, along with Minnesota. I don’t see much separation between the two clubs at this juncture, except that Atlanta is getting more than a field goal in an indoor stadium.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers

I didn’t plan on being high on the NFC South in Week 1. It just happened that way. If one team was more unlucky than Atlanta in terms of defensive injuries, it was Tampa Bay. In fact, according to that Football Outsiders piece, the Bucs were historically injured on defense. It’s partially what led to a league-worst defense.

New head coach Bruce Arians isn’t a defensive guy, but his group should be better just based on luck regression. Plus Ndamukong Suh; plus Devin White. Add that to what should be a potent offense, and I don’t understand why the Buccaneers are home dogs in Week 1.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Detroit Lions -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals

The lines for NFL Week 1 are always a bit screwy, so I must defer to picking against teams I know are bad. Arizona is not a good football team and home-field advantage does little to sway me.

While it’s true that Detroit got humiliated in week one of last season on the road, I believe in the steps they’ve taken for 2019. I also believe in the inability of the Cardinals to stop them defensively, let alone move the ball well on offense. Give up less than a field goal and feel secure in backing Detroit.

Baltimore Ravens -7 at Miami Dolphins

I’m picking two road favorites because of their opponents. The Dolphins are tanking, despite the team’s public denials. Perhaps Ryan Fitzpatrick whips up some magic once again, but he doesn’t exactly have the same weapons he had in Tampa Bay last season. Does he have any weapons?

Baltimore is going to be good and can lean on its solid running game and defense to start the season. I’m willing to give up a touchdown because I can’t envision the piece-meal Miami defense stopping much of anything, let alone Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.