We finally know who the good teams are in the NFL, but oddsmakers are being tricky with their spreads. Do you take the big points, or give up a few on a proven winner? Your NFL Week 4 best picks against the spread (ATS).
As we attempt to get a grasp on the 2019 football season, we aren’t off to the best of starts against the spread. Todd’s Week 3 read was particularly bad as he attempted to bridge the gap between teams that were okay and teams that were kind of bad. The okay teams exerted their unexpected dominance (unexpected at least his my mind), but he’s not ready to completely dump this strategy. Dan had a great week, bringing his record to .500 on the season.
There isn’t really any trend to find when picking against the spread just yet. Most of the top teams ATS are also the top teams in the sport. Maybe the simplest trend to find is that the Miami Dolphins are not coming close to covering any of these contests. Of course, it’s NFL Week 4 opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, is also winless ATS thus far.
What does that mean for our NFL Week 4 slate of games? These are your best picks against the spread (ATS).
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 4 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019 Record ATS
Dan Salem’s record ATS: 3-3
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 2-4
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Cleveland Browns +7.5 at Baltimore Ravens
I will go back to the well once more, grabbing a lot of points against a team I think is just okay. The Ravens’ only win ATS came in Week 1 against Miami. Their only really good defensive performance also came against Miami. Arguably, their only really good offensive performance came that game as well, depending on how you feel about putting up 28 on a mediocre Kansas City defense.
The Browns have been struggling in a major way to live up to preseason expectations. You know what helps subvert those expectations? Being more than a touchdown underdog against a divisional opponent. It’s trendy to say that Baker Mayfield is a bust now. This game is the outcome I want to see first before declaring such a conclusion plausible.
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Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 at Denver Broncos
The legend himself, Gardner Minshew, is getting more than a field goal against a sneaky bad defense. Denver was supposed to be carried by that side of the ball. Instead, the Broncos have literally zero sacks and zero forced turnovers, which is not normal. The offense has been about as expected, meaning below average. It’s why this team is 0-3.
On the other side of the ball, is Minshew better than Nick Foles, and by extension, better than Carson Wentz, the guy Foles trumped in the playoffs twice, who, if you remember, was on his way to winning 2017 NFL MVP? The player who ended up stealing MVP that year was Tom Brady. So essentially what I’m wondering is whether Minshew, himself a sixth-round draft pick, is better than Tom Brady. The jury is still out.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Houston Texans -4 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Texans have been playing teams close, but winning. This game would have originally scared me off, but Carolina will be without the services of Cam Newton once again. I no longer fear the Panthers, despite their defensive improvements thus far. Houston is far better right now and playing at home. I feel confident giving up four points, especially when the opposition is without its best player.
Minnesota Vikings +2 at Chicago Bears
Chicago had one good game against a very bad opponent, as well as one semi-okay game against a very good opponent. Do we honestly believe in the Bears right now? Minnesota’s defense is really good and will easily shut down whatever Chicago has to offer. The only real question is regarding the Bears defense versus the Vikings’ offense. Will Minnesota be able to run the ball well against Chicago?
I believe the Vikings continue to run the ball well. Kirk Cousins is doing just enough each game because his defense is that good right now. I don’t expect much from the Bears, even at home. I’m taking the points, even though it’s only two. Minnesota wins a close one on the road.