NFL: Defense rules in 2019 and the stats are all wrong
By Dan Salem
You’d think defense is ruling the day thus far, but the 2019 NFL stats tell a very different story. Can any statistic point towards winning football?
We are getting to the point in the 2019 NFL season where it is hard to tell which statistics indicate good football is being played. The problem with NFL stats is that they often tell us what already happened, rather than being indicative of what will happen. Can any statistic point towards winning football?
Surely defense is consistently winning — or a great running game. The stats tell a very different story, leaving the league upside down as mid-season approaches.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2019 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
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Todd Salem:
Good teams run the ball more than bad teams, especially in the second half. The obvious problem with this stat is that they don’t win because they run the football more. They run the football more because they are winning. This is a useless stat. We can confirm its uselessness because Bill Callahan thinks it’s useful.
So if running doesn’t correlate to being a winning team (it’s only a by-product), passing must. But here we encounter another issue. Being a prolific passing team could mean a team is good overall. Or, it may not. The Chiefs are currently first in the league in passing. They pass to win. The Falcons are currently second. They pass because they are never winning.
What about on defense? Allowing the fewest rushing yards must be indicative of winning. If your opponent is constantly winning, they can run and run. Teams like New England, Baltimore and Chicago are all top five in fewest yards allowed on the ground. But what if teams don’t run because it’s so easy to pass? Tampa Bay allows the fewest rushing yards in the league. Another dead end.
The undeniably useful turnover differential must, therefore, be a key stat. Winning teams force more turnovers than they commit and vice versa. It gives them extra possessions while taking their opponent’s offense off the field. New England is currently first in the NFL in turnover differential. Ah ha. But Pittsburgh is currently tied for second (as of Monday morning).
So where are we? Is it possible that none of the standard stats in the NFL are predictive of anything?
Websites make their own advanced metrics to try to attempt to fill the void I am describing. They often focus on who does what against whom. Degree of difficulty in terms of strength of opponent and strength of schedule is often vital. No standard stats take the opponent into account.
In Week 6, the normally dreadful New York Giants defense had a good game, relatively speaking. (Two of the scores against the team did not come against the defense.) The fact that it came against the Patriots means more. But that can’t be the only piece of information we are missing. Because even knowing the opponent doesn’t change the correlation-vs-causation issue.
The Texans had a good game against Kansas City; they held the Chiefs to only 53 yards on the ground. Notice I didn’t say they had a good game because they held them to 53 yards. That simply wouldn’t be true. Kansas City has already had a game where they rushed for just 31 yards and won easily. One doesn’t cause the other. And besides, we already noted how the Chiefs throw to win.
Dan Salem:
What truly surprises me is that there isn’t one primary formula being used to win football games this season. The NFL goes through trends where great running games win, or prolific passing attacks dominate. Some seasons its all about defense, which is what I thought 2019 was being defined by.
I thought great defense was ruling the day and securing victories. After the last two weeks, this no longer appears accurate. We are truly living in a crockpot of strategies that don’t currently yield a single winning formula.
Perhaps it’s because there are very few dominant teams, but so many games are being won by only a few points. Analyzing the numbers is supposed to add clarity, but perhaps the sample size is too large. If we look only at the two undefeated teams in the NFL, the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers, then the formula is pretty obvious.
Defense is winning and the running game is being used to control time of possession. New England has scored a ton of points with defense and special teams. San Francisco is simply shutting other teams down. If these are the two best teams in each conference, then isn’t this our winning formula?
That sample size is obviously too small, although accurate for the teams included. Furthermore, every team with a 4-2 record or better has a positive point differential. All but four teams have given up well over 100 points this season. The Patriots and 49ers are joined by the Bills and Vikings, four teams playing great defense.
I do believe this season is about defense, but the offensive stats are still real. Of those same teams 4-2 or better, only one has scored fewer than 125 points this season. That team is the Buffalo Bills. So teams are winning with defense, but also by scoring a ton of points.
Because there are several truly awful football teams, and even more that are very bad defensively, every one of these stats is currently skewed. But there is always one sure way to assess a football team: with the eye test. The teams playing great defense all pass the eye test. Those playing great offense, but faltering defensively, do not currently pass the eye test. That includes Kansas City, Houston, and Baltimore. Several others like Green Bay, Carolina, and Minnesota are scraping along by the skin of their teeth.
A few better calls by the referees and our standings look quite different. Let’s check back in early November and see if these stats have normalized because defense normally wins out in the end.