Road teams continue to dominate against the spread and Vegas has taken notice. The lines are slim in NFL Week 7, but we found some gems. Your best picks against the spread (ATS).
Six weeks into the NFL season, the surprise, good teams are also shaping up as the best teams against the spread. The San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, and Detroit Lions are each 4-1 ATS. If not for some shaky officiating in regards to Detroit Monday night, all three of these teams would be in playoff position right now.
On the other end of the spectrum, it continues to be impossible to make lines high enough to account for the incompetence of such squads as Atlanta, Miami, and Washington. What’s interesting is finding Baltimore at the bottom of the league with these teams, having just one win thus far ATS. It feels like the Ravens are under- and overachieving at the same time.
Todd was low on them entering the season (low on the entire AFC North to be honest), but they have surpassed even his expectations in some regard. Yet their wins have come against opponents with a combined 4-18-1 record, and their margin of victory is reflected in their poor ATS mark.
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Where does this leave us in NFL Week 7? Oddsmakers are starting to course correct, so the pickings are slim. These are your best picks against the spread. All lines come via Bovada.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 7 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019 Record ATS
Dan Salem’s record ATS: 7-5
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 6-6
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
San Francisco 49ers -9.5 at Washington Redskins
Home, road, day, night — it doesn’t matter. The Redskins are one of the very worst teams in the NFL, and the 49ers are one of the best. The former has an inept offense; the latter has arguably the best defense in the sport. The former could have lost to Miami; the latter has dominated two straight teams that had hopes of competing in the postseason.
I hesitate to lay this many points with the San Francisco offense. Even as the team continues to win, Jimmy Garoppolo and company are not overly impressive. The running corps is deep, but this isn’t an offense that dominates. We will have to rely on the defense to do that as well, as it has all season.
New Orleans Saints +3.5 at Chicago Bears
New Orleans continues to impress defensively as Teddy Bridgewater holds down the fort, awaiting the return of Drew Brees. The Bears are studly themselves on defense, but they have one of the worst offenses in the sport right now. Of their three wins, only once did they even surpass 16 points. That doesn’t seem to change home or away. The Saints defense should cover this on their own as we benefit from another road line that feels a bit too high.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Oakland Raiders +6 at Green Bay Packers
While the Packers are winning, they are by no means dominating teams. Oakland has had two weeks to prepare for this matchup, and just made the Chicago defense look mediocre. They will hang with Green Bay, meaning six points is too many to pass up. I’m sticking with road teams getting points, as oddsmakers seem to have course-corrected this week with a ton of one- and three-point spreads.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Dallas Cowboys
I don’t love either team right now, but the Cowboys only strength is running the football. Amari Cooper is ailing and Philadelphia is poised to stick it to them. I also like the Eagles offense against Dallas’ rather weak defense. If the Jets can walk all over Dallas, then so can Philadelphia.
There might not be a definitive favorite in the NFC East right now, but the Eagles are as close as it gets. The Cowboys three-game losing streak is legit. I expect Philadelphia to win outright, but we are getting three points. Take them. This is not as close a game as oddsmakers would have you believe.