NFL Week 9 is officially Separation Sunday, as the AFC elite distance themselves and NFC’s top teams keep rolling in wins. We are picking accordingly. These are your best picks against the spread (ATS).
The NFL trade deadline has passed. There were a lot of rumors, a lot of moving pieces. But nothing changed the outlook of the second half of the season. The biggest news may have been Cincinnati benching Andy Dalton in its attempt to out-tank the Miami Dolphins, though it makes sense to see what it has in Ryan Finley.
In today’s day and age, waiting eight weeks is as long as any rookie with a potential future would possibly sit behind a veteran starter. Finley may not have a future, but the Bengals weren’t going to wait any longer to find out. With Cincinnati on its bye, we have to wait at least one week to bet against it.
No other deals had major implications, yet NFL Week 9 will certainly set the tone going forward. It’s Separation Sunday across the league and especially in the AFC. These are your best picks against the spread. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.
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Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 9 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019 Record ATS
Dan Salem’s record ATS: 9-7
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 8-8
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Houston Texans -1.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (in London)
New England Patriots -3.5 at Baltimore Ravens
I’m calling NFL Week 9 Separation Sunday in the AFC playoff picture. Houston faces Jacksonville with both teams vying for the division and a playoff spot. New England travels to Baltimore with both teams hoping for a bye in the postseason.
I don’t like the way last week ended for Houston in terms of injuries, but all signs point to Deshaun Watson being healthy. J.J. Watt is out, but if Laremy Tunsil is in, that’s arguably more important for this squad. With Watson and Tunsil ready to roll, I would have believed the Texans being 1.5-point favorites in a true road game. The fact that it’s a neutral site and they are only giving 1.5 makes it all the juicer. This is a superior club to Jacksonville.
I’ve been a big believer in the legend, Garnder Minshew, all season, but he’s an inferior player to Watson at this point in their careers. That’s no slight; it seems obvious. But the Jaguars haven’t really even been able to lean on their defense this season to pick up any slack. The Jags are mediocre defensively, and two straight weeks against terrible opponents have masked that. Leonard Fournette could be a difference-maker, but the Texans are an elite run-stopping team.
As for the Ravens, this is their chance to prove they belong with the lone big dog in the conference. Unfortunately, I don’t think they do. Neither team has played a hard schedule to this point, but the Pats are superior. Their historic start defensively has continued through eight weeks. The Ravens, who normally hang their hat on defense, are just average this year. The rushing offense is where Baltimore has a clear edge, but we’ve established in the past that running doesn’t translate to winning. It’s the other way around.
I don’t believe a team can run to a victory over New England. Buffalo was a pretty good precursor in Week 4. The Bills want to run and have done so effectively. Against the Patriots, they gained 135 yards on 6.1 yards per carry; a great day. Their offense still struggled to garner any points.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Indianapolis Colts +1.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Am I missing something here? The Colts began as one-point favorites and are now underdogs because… Pittsburgh beat Miami. This is silly, as Indianapolis remains a legitimate playoff team and the Steelers are not.
Add in Pittsburgh’s new injuries, and we have to take the superior team despite the shallow line. The Colts played poorly and still won last week. I expect them to bounce back and not have many issues dispatching with the Steelers.
Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are another bad team that suddenly looks halfway decent because of a lackluster victory. Don’t be fooled, as they are a flawed football team. Green Bay is anything but flawed and will easily defeat one of the plethora of average AFC teams. Philip Rivers is not playing well and it’s not getting easier versus the Packers strong defense.
You pegged this week Separation Sunday and I like it! My picks are all behind playoff teams as well. We will see them truly push two wanna be teams aside. Green Bay may be the best team in the NFC, so don’t expect a hiccup versus Los Angeles.