Road teams keep winning a lot, but picking the right ones is proving a challenge. Thankfully we’ve figured out your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 10.
Overall, the against-the-spread records in the NFL continue to balance out as the season progresses. No one has fewer than two losses, nor does any team have fewer than two wins. There is still one obvious bastion for a heavily favorable record though.
It has been a few weeks, so we thought it time to check back in on our road teams during the 2019 NFL season. Through nine weeks, road teams are 17 games over .500 against the spread!
As one would expect, this is mostly made up of road underdogs. There have been a handful of road favorites, who have collectively gone roughly .500 ATS. The road dogs are what make up our record of 17 games over .500. Unfortunately, despite pounding the road teams on our picks, it seems we are routinely picking the wrong road dogs, as we both continue to sit right at .500 ourselves for the year.
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Thankfully we’ve figured things out for NFL Week 10. These are your best picks against the spread. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 10 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019 Record ATS
Dan Salem’s record ATS: 9-9
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 9-9
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Detroit Lions +3 at Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills +3 at Cleveland Browns
According to the faithful (perhaps outdated) betting rule of road teams getting three points, oddsmakers consider the Lions/Bears and Bills/Browns, respectively, even teams at a neutral site. I respectfully disagree.
Detroit versus Chicago is the classic offense versus defense. The Lions have been getting shredded defensively, but Detroit has felt snake-bitten; the NFC’s version of the Chargers. In eight games, there have been three one-score losses and a tie. There are also three one-score wins.
Detroit can’t get itself off the seesaw. Is there a better salve than a familiar opponent who can’t move the football? The list of teams generating less offense than Chicago is a whos-who of contenders for the first pick in the draft: Miami, Washington, and the Jets.
Buffalo and Cleveland have been even more uneven to this juncture. The Bills have been one of the season’s best surprises. Behind a quality running game and good defense, this is a current playoff team.
The Browns have been one of the year’s biggest disappointments. They aren’t doing much of anything right on either side of the ball, and facing the Buffalo defense won’t heal their issues. This line is simply a case of Vegas trying to grab the last gasps of the Cleveland bandwagon before it empties out completely.
On top of all that, Chicago and Cleveland are each 2-6 ATS, tied for the worst record in the sport. Cleveland is also the worst home team at 0-3, and the Bears are only slightly above the basement at 1-3.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota Vikings +3 at Dallas Cowboys
I too can’t seem to get off the road teams’ bandwagon, especially when they are getting points. May I present to you a selection of matchups where the home team’s defense is not all that great. We begin with the Buccaneers and end with the Cowboys. Neither elicits much confidence.
I really like what Arizona has done thus far this season, and Tampa Bay is stopping literally no one. They keep playing in high scoring games in which they lose. This tells me everything I need to know, as the Cardinals are successfully running the football and like to throw. Take the points, since its more than a field goal. Arizona looks like the more complete team right now.
Minnesota is also in a highly favorable position. They are a better team than Dallas, play better defense, score more points and are receiving a field goal. If the Giants can hang with the Cowboys until turnovers kick in, then surely the Vikings can push Dallas around. Take the points. This is not as close of a matchup as the line would indicate.