NFL Week 12, 2019: Best picks against the spread (ATS)
By Dan Salem
The NFL has been streaky this season, so finding the hot lines can be a challenge. Our track record is solid and these are your best picks against the spread for NFL Week 12.
The Miami Dolphins were on a roll. They had covered in five straight games, even winning the last two outright. The defacto worst team in the league for much of the season was running as hot as can be (in this regard). The only stretch longer all season by any team was when New Orleans covered six straight contests from September through the end of October.
Pittsburgh covered four straight from the middle of September to the middle of October. New England matched that mark in October. So did Carolina and Detroit earlier in the year. The Ravens are currently at four straight covers. It is hard to win five straight games against the spread, and yet the tanking Miami Dolphins did so this season.
Winning five straight outright is almost easier because there are no books compensating for your streak. The Dolphins had played Buffalo on the road, being given 17 points. Four covers later, with Miami hosting, the spread was down to +7. It was the fewest points the Dolphins had gotten all year against a team not contending with them for first pick in the NFL Draft. It isn’t long before the inevitable line correction comes for everyone.
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Where does this leave us in NFL Week 12? There are some juicy lines to jump upon. These are your best picks against the spread. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.
Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 12 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.
2019 Record ATS
Dan Salem’s record ATS: 13-9
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 9-12-1
Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS
Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Steelers burned me last week for sure. Perhaps that allowed for greater value in their game this week. Against the worst team in the league, one of the best defenses in the sport is giving less than a touchdown. The Pittsburgh offense is sustaining major injuries, but I can’t imagine Cincinnati doing as much about it as Cleveland was able to on a short week last week.
If Mason Rudolph gets back to game managing and doesn’t turn the ball over, the Steelers should be fine. Rudolph had as many turnovers in Week 11 as he did the entire rest of the season combined.
Seattle Seahawks +2 at Philadelphia Eagles
This line seems too good to be true. Seattle looks like a much better squad than Philadelphia from the outset. The Seahawks are also undefeated on the road at 5-0. They are a perfect 3-0 as an underdog as well. To top it all off, they are coming off a bye. Maybe the lowish point differential should scare us away from thinking Seattle is a legitimate 8-2 club, but it’s not like the Eagles fill in the void there.
Philadelphia has underperformed and underwhelmed in nearly every aspect this season, and its offense is crumbling under injuries at the worst time.
Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS
New York Giants +6.5 at Chicago Bears
The Giants are an exciting football team that would have several more wins, if not for a plethora of turnovers. Coming out of their bye week, I expect New York to be more efficient and for Daniel Jones to be more in control of the offense. I also love the juicy matchup with Chicago.
The Bears have been sneaky bad this season and unable to score many points. The Giants have not been losing by much, so I’m all over these 6.5 points on the road. Bottom line, Jones is better than whoever plays quarterback for Chicago.
Denver Broncos +4 at Buffalo Bills
Is it just me, or have the Bills come back down to earth? Denver was shutting out Minnesota through two quarters last week before the Vikings mounted an epic comeback for the win. The Broncos have a sneaky good defense and can actually beat Buffalo.
Next. AFC Wildcard a muddled mess of real and phony contenders. dark
Four points are enough for me to back Denver on the road. Their defense is strong enough to hold the Bills in check, so I’m taking the points. These are evenly matched teams, even if the records say otherwise.