Oakland Raiders: Optimism waning as wheels fall off

Just a couple of weeks ago, the Oakland Raiders were a possible playoff team but two straight bad losses have wiped away almost all optimism.

After an admittedly narrow and relatively unimpressive home win for the Oakland Raiders over the Bengals, there was a palpable buzz about Jon Gruden’s club. They’d moved to 6-4 on the season, occupied one of the Wild Card spots in the AFC and seemed like the vision of Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock might be realized sooner rather than later.

In the following two games, however, the Raiders have lost the plot in devastating fashion. A road tilt in East Rutherford saw Oakland get shellacked, 34-3, by a shaky Jets squad. That was followed by a trip to Arrowhead Stadium where the silver and black lost by 31 points again to the Chiefs in a game where Patrick Mahomes didn’t even need to throw for 200 yards to put up 40 points.

Now at 6-6 on the 2019 NFL season, the Raiders are not out of the playoffs. In fact, they’re just one game out of the No. 6 seed currently held by the Pittsburgh Steelers and one game behind the Tennessee Titans. And yet, they feel much further behind than that after the last two weeks.

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Derek Carr, who had been enjoying quite the bounce-back season in the first 10 games of the year, has fallen off dramatically in two semi-favorable matchups. The quarterback has thrown for a combined 349 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions over the losses to the Jets and Chiefs. Yes, the windy weather in Kansas City didn’t help but his decision-making and performance has left a lot to be desired.

Meanwhile, the suspect defense has gone from making just enough plays to get by to not making any plays at all. Giving up 74 points in two games is not conducive to winning for a Raiders team that prides themselves on their run-first stylings on offense.

With those two critical factors and plenty of others (wide receiver injuries, poor coaching decisions and playing on the road in tough spots, to name a few), there is little optimism about Oakland right now. The Raiders are not the playoff team ahead of schedule. They are a team that is clearly not there at this point.

But are things truly all that bad? Yes, it does appear as if the wheels are falling off and the machine is crumbling down after the last two weeks but it might just be regression to the mean. The Raiders are likely a .500 club as currently constructed at best. And while that won’t get them into the playoffs, it still puts them ahead of schedule and with reliable pieces to move forward with.

Oakland was projected by many to win 4-6 games in the 2019 season. They’re already at the top end of that and should win at least one or two more contests down the stretch. Thus, the Raiders are already exceeding expectations, even if that end result is disappointing in relation to where they were after 10 games.

Moreover, the Raiders have viable pieces to build with showing up as rookie Josh Jacobs is a bonafide workhorse running back, the offensive line is performing beautifully, tight end Darren Waller has been breaking out and sleepers like Maxx Crosby are showing their merits.

That doesn’t mean this team still doesn’t have questions. Clelin Ferrell, the No. 4 pick in 2019, looks like a whiff at that spot to this point. The wide receiver talent severely needs to be improved, as does the secondary and linebacker groups. And then there’s the question of Carr and his viability as the guy to lead this team for the long haul.

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Having said that, it’s clear that the early machinations of Gruden and Mayock’s plan are in motion and generating modest success. They are playing the long game (hello, 10-year contract) and, even if the playoffs seemed in reach just a couple of weeks ago, even being in that conversation and finishing 8-8 at this point puts them on a great pace as they prepare to head to Las Vegas.

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