NFL Week 15, 2019: Best picks against the spread (ATS)

There are way too many open questions entering NFL Week 15, so falling back on season-long trends is critical. These are your best picks against the spread (ATS) for NFL Week 15.

NFL Week 15 looks chock full of intriguing matchups, both in terms of implications for the standings as well as the lines that accompany them. The Baltimore Ravens want a first-round bye but may have to play on a short week without their star quarterback.

Do you take the chance on a high line with Lamar Jackson‘s status in doubt? The New England Patriots have a bye on their mind as well, but how many points is too many to give for this struggling offense? Much like the Patriots, Seattle is trying to rebound and facing a less-than-stellar opponent to aid its march.

Houston and Tennessee are battling for a division title. The Texans are the road team but are getting less than a field goal against the surging Titans. A similar scenario will play out in Pittsburgh, when the Steelers host the Bills, giving less than a touchdown. Both teams will be playing for the same playoff spot.

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Is the new Denver believable against a Chiefs team getting back on track? The first half of the last Eagles game looked like more of the same; then they took off. Is it enough to cover more than a touchdown the following week? Is San Francisco rolling fast enough to cover a huge line against Atlanta?

What do we do with the Rams-Cowboys game? Los Angeles was dead in the water two weeks ago. Dallas is somehow terrible and tied for first place in its division. The Cowboys have yet to beat a good team, but are the Rams actually good now?

Don’t forget the battle for top draft positioning between the Dolphins and the Giants. Are the Giants a viable favorite against anyone at this point? With so many open questions entering NFL Week 15, these are your best picks against the spread. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate NFL Week 15 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2019 Record ATS

Dan Salem’s record ATS: 16-11-1
Todd Salem’s record ATS: 12-15-1

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Buffalo Bills +2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is at home, has won three in a row, and is facing an opponent coming off an important loss. Everything lined up for the Steelers, right? I’m not so sure. Their three straight wins have come against dregs, while Buffalo played the Baltimore Ravens tight. Both of these teams have elite defenses, yet Pittsburgh hasn’t reached 24 points since Week 9 and hasn’t scored 30 in any game this season.

Buffalo has that upside, is getting points here, and oh by the way, has the very best ATS road record of any team in the league.

Los Angeles Rams +1 at Dallas Cowboys

The Rams’ season makes no sense. They went from a Super Bowl favorite to complete trash and now are back again in the playoff hunt. The odd thing is they have been way more consistent in betting circles. In fact, Los Angeles is tied for the best ATS record in the league. And it is blowing everyone out of the water when favored in a game. (LAR is 8-3 as favorite; no one else is better than 4-2, and only seven other teams even have a winning record.)

They aren’t technically favorites in this one, though the line is vacillating between +1 and -1. Nevertheless, the Rams are rolling, and the Cowboys are doing the exact opposite. Dallas has yet to defeat a team with a winning record and is just 2-7 against anyone outside of the putrid NFC East.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Denver Broncos +10 at Kansas City Chiefs

Denver is on a two-game winning streak and has only been blown out once this season. While it’s true that Kansas City dealt the Broncos that blowout loss, this is not the same Denver team any longer. They look, dare I say, good. I trust their defense to keep things close, especially with the Chiefs having already clinched the division title. 10 points are too many to pass up this week. Take the Broncos.

Miami Dolphins +3.5 at New York Giants

What do you do when two garbage teams play one another? Pick the team getting points. I’m backing two losing teams on the road once again, because getting points on the road has proven successful all season. Miami is also playing pretty good football. They exploited the Jets secondary last week to the tune of eight red zone trips. All eight turned into field goal attempts, but what do you think will happen against an even worse Giants defense?

I’m no math expert, but if the Dolphins start with 3.5 points, then they won’t have to do much to beat New York against the spread. Eli Manning or not, the Giants have been unable to play football during the second half of games. Miami is quietly playing well over the last month. Take the points. New York isn’t beating anyone right now.