NFL Playoffs 2020: Conference Championships best picks against the spread (ATS)

What do the trends mean for the NFL Conference Championships? Not a thing. These are your best picks against the spread (ATS) for the 2020 NFL Playoffs.

Unfortunately for Todd, 2020 is not going any better for his picks than 2019. In the Divisional Round of the 2020 NFL Playoffs, three of the four home favorites covered; two rather easily. The lone favorite who fell short happened to be the Super Bowl favorite, the Baltimore Ravens. And as we know, they lost outright in demoralizing fashion.

It is hard not to be impressed by all of the four remaining teams. The Tennessee Titans feel like the outlier left alive because of their regular season, but they arguably have the most impressive wins of the postseason thus far. Ryan Tannehill behind center has infused them with something that has kick-started the rest of the roster to a degree.

It is hard to divvy out credit, though, when the defense is shutting down Baltimore (and New England) in the red zone. Plus, Derrick Henry is running roughshod over anyone in his path. This is simply a better team than the one that Marcus Mariota was leading.

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Round 2 of the playoffs was in stark contrast to round one and most of the regular season, when road teams and underdogs excelled to a grand degree. In the conference title round, we actually have two pretty big road underdogs considering the stakes. These are supposed to be the four best teams in football (even though we know the league doesn’t always work like that). And yet, both games have spreads over a touchdown.

For the more seasoned gamblers, these two games are begging to be put into a teaser. We will stick with our standard wagers, though, and hope to grab two victories instead of one. (At this point, Todd will settle for one.) These are your best picks against the spread for the 2020 NFL Playoffs. All lines come courtesy of The Action Network.

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the 2020 NFL Playoffs in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

2019/2020 Record ATS:

The best of us (Dan Salem): 22-14-2
Gathering data for next year (Todd Salem): 14-23-1

Todd Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans

On the one hand, who wants to bet against Tennessee right now? The Titans stunned New England and steamrolled the Super Bowl-favorite Ravens. They are also getting 7.5 points here, which feels like a large line for a team this hot.

On the other hand, who wants to bet against Kansas City? The Chiefs just put together one of the most impressive displays we’ve seen in a while against Houston. They couldn’t be contained, let alone stopped. They are only giving 7.5 points here. They only needed two quarters to cover that last round after spotting the opponent a three-score lead!

Last week, I pulled an amateur move by backing the Texans even as I said I didn’t think they could win outright against KC. I won’t make the same blunder here.

Green Bay Packers +7.5 at San Francisco 49ers

Green Bay is a public team with one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time and a defense that has been playing well. It is still getting 7.5 points in the conference championship. That is crazy to think about. San Francisco should certainly be favored, even if the game was at a neutral site, but I don’t see the gulf between the 49ers and Packers being as large as the one in the AFC title game.

Though the 49ers are thought of as a pounding offense that relies on its defense to win, Green Bay actually had the superior running game during the regular season by a fair margin. And if we want to rely on some standard, classic stats, the two teams allowed nearly identical amounts of points defensively (19.4 ppg for SF, 19.6 ppg for GB). That doesn’t mean the Packers are better at playing San Fran’s game, but it could mean that.

Dan Salem’s Best Picks ATS

Tennessee Titans +7.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

I’m unapologetically picking the opposite of you, as I refuse to be fooled a second time by the Titans, who easily shut down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Tennessee’s defense is THAT good and can slow Kansas City for longer than a quarter of football.

They control the clock and time of possession with their running game and will keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. Until I see otherwise, I must back Derrick Henry and his Titans. Since we get over a touchdown, this feels like an easy cover, even if Tennessee lets the game slip away.

San Francisco 49ers -7.5 vs. Green Bay Packers

The Packers nearly gave the game away to Seattle last weekend. Green Bay could not run the football to save its season, relying on Rodgers to win it for them. Don’t expect the 49ers to let him throw like he did versus the Seahawks, and don’t expect the Packers to suddenly find their running game once again. No one is stopping the high-speed train that is San Francisco.

It was certainly a while ago, but the 49ers destroyed the Packers when they played during the regular season, winning 37-8 with ease. After an impressive win versus Minnesota, I am not backing away from San Francisco. They are home and have the momentum. It’s hard to lay over a touchdown, but defense wins this game and the 49ers are lights out.