Can Aaron Rodgers remain the Packers starter for next five years?

With recent speculation that the Green Bay Packers could draft a quarterback, is Aaron Rodgers realistic in his belief that he can start for another five years?

The Green Bay Packers have not been shy in the past from selecting one of the top quarterbacks in the draft class while still having a future Hall-of-Famer still playing at an elite level. In the 2005 NFL Draft, they selected Aaron Rodgers 24th overall out of Cal. A projected No. 1 overall pick, Rodgers underwent one of the most painful evenings in draft day history as he tumbled to the end of the first round.

Then starter, Brett Favre, beloved fan favorite and face of the franchise, openly criticized the team’s decision to take a quarterback with their first-round pick. While the selection caused a rift in the relationship between Favre and the Packers, it ultimately allowed Green Bay to remain a dominant franchise throughout the rest of the 2000s and the next decade as well.

Fast-forward to Rodgers’ current dilemma, the Packers are once again considering a quarterback in the first round of the NFL Draft should a quality opportunity presents itself. Jacob Eason from Washington has entered the chat.

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Anticipated to fall just outside of the first round, the Packers have the opportunity to acquire a highly-touted passer in Eason at No. 30 overall. Regardless of if the Green Bay Packers select a quarterback in the 2020 class or not, however, the statement by Rodgers on his ability to win the starting position every year is questionable.

In an interview with ESPN Milwaukee Rodgers stated, “I’m confident (he is) not going to beat me out anytime soon.”

While he would not resent the team from preparing for the future by bringing in a guy to learn behind the future Hall-of-Famer, he isn’t willing to abdicate the throne as the leader of the Cheese Heads. Analytically though, could he successfully remain as the starting field general on offense for the next five years?

The point that many analysts jump to conclude is that Rodgers’ game is slipping as his stats have declined over the past few seasons. What they don’t understand is the state of the team during the last three years, as a broken collarbone and coaching changes are only two of the many issues that plagued this team.

In 2017, Rodgers fractured his right clavicle, which resulted in missing seven games during the season. Prior to his season-ending injury, Rodgers led the Packers to a 4-3 record (counting the loss to Minnesota in which he was hurt) and threw for 1,675 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions with a completion rate of 65.7 percent

The following season, Rodgers and head coach Mike McCarthy suffered an unrepairable break in their relationship that led to the in-season firing of McCarthy. In that season, after a head coaching change that required the work of interim head coach Joe Philbin, Rodgers threw 4,442 yards, 25 touchdowns and two interceptions, completing 62.3 percent of his throws.

With McCarthy gone, Rodgers played his first full season under rookie head coach Matt LaFleur in 2019 and led his team to an NFC Championship Game while also posting a 13-3 record. Though, like the NFC Championship in 2016, the Packers were dominated by the home team leaving them empty-handed. Statistically, he threw for 4,002 yards, 26 scores and four picks with a 62 percent completion rate.

In the past three years, the only reliable passing option on this offense has been wide receiver Davante Adams. Outside of him, there is a steep drop-off as the Packers have yet to find a complimentary wide-out for Adams that could provide added unpredictability and versatility. Three undrafted wide receivers were in the Packers’ starting lineup in 2019. The last time they had drafted a wide receiver in the first round was in 2002 (Javon Walker).

Rodgers is now 36-years old and, with each passing year, it looks as though his best years may be behind him to many people. LaFleur seemingly disagrees and remains highly optimistic that Rodgers will emerge as the “Bad Man” that he has identified himself as over the years with another summer to understand his new offense and build connections with new teammates acquired via free agency and the draft.

The last point that everyone fails to acknowledge is the aforementioned offensive scheme change that came with LaFleur. With McCarthy, the Packers’ offense utilized sticks, slants and four verticals. The dull and predictable playbook was the primary factor in his termination, thus leading to bringing in LaFleur, who has implemented a zone-run, west coast scheme.

The new offense promotes an emphasis on the run game and using play-action passes for moderate to deep looks when opposing defenses commit to stopping the run. Because of this, Rodgers’ statistics will take a hit as he will no longer need to carry the offense single handily.

Before the new implementation, the only way the Packers could win is if he threw 40-50 passes and four touchdowns per game. Now, all he has to do is keep opposing teams guessing by occasionally taking shots downfield.

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As for his longevity, less focus on the pass will provide Rodgers with more security and protection as the threat of being chopped down by an EDGE rusher is significantly lowered. There are few players in the NFL that have as much influence on the outcome of a football game than Aaron Rodgers and he still has the ability to dominate in the league. Throwing less will allow him to maintain his arm strength and his accuracy is still exceptional.

With all of these factors playing a role in the latter half of his career, it will provide him the ability to remain as the starter for the next five years, should he remain healthy, as the Packers continue to invest in his protection while adding more weapons for him to throw to as well.

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