2020 NFL Draft: How dangerous is taking a first-round wide receiver?

The 2020 NFL Draft features the best wide receiver class since 2014, but is it dangerous to select receivers in the first round?

The 2020 NFL Draft is less than three weeks away. While the draft will undergo a new format because of the current coronavirus pandemic, it still offers NFL teams the opportunity to infuse their teams with young, ultra-talented prospects. This year, the draft features the best collection of wide receivers in arguably the last decade.

While the draft is an opportunity for NFL teams and aspiring pro football players, at its core, the draft is one massive guessing game. Some of the highest-drafted prospects always become busts in the league. Even the more secure prospects can turn out to be disappointing. In recent years, there are plenty of examples of receivers falling into this category.

Let’s hop on a time machine and go back five years to the 2015 NFL Draft. Six wide receivers got selected in the first round, a number similar to what we could see this year. Those six receivers have produced four Pro Bowl appearances and five 1,000-yard seasons. Amari Cooper accounts for all of the Pro Bowl selections and four of the notable seasons (DeVante Parker reached 1,000 yards for the first time this past season).

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Kevin White, the seventh overall pick in 2015, is out of the NFL. Nelson Agholor (20th overall) is famous for dropping passes. Breshad Perriman (26th overall) just produced his first season with over 500 receiving yards. Phillip Dorsett (29th overall) only started 15 games during his first five seasons. With Parker serving as an undecided element, the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft produced one star receiver and four serious busts.

The following draft (2016) produced arguably the worst first-round receiving class of the 2010s. Corey Coleman (15th overall) never topped his rookie output of 413 receiving yards. Will Fuller (21st overall) is incapable of staying healthy. Josh Doctson (22nd overall) got cut by the Minnesota Vikings midway through last season, after flaming out in Washington. In four years with the Vikings, Laquon Treadwell (23rd overall) produced 701 receiving yards.

It’s important to note that not all receivers from the 2015 and 2016 draft classes performed poorly. Seattle found Tyler Lockett in the third round in 2015, and Minnesota took Stefon Diggs in the fifth. The following year, Tyler Boyd, Sterling Shepard and Michael Thomas went in the second round.

The pattern of mid-round receivers outproducing first-rounders continued in 2017. After Corey Davis, Mike Williams, and John Ross all went in the first ten overall picks, Curtis Samuel and JuJu Smith-Schuster went in the second round. The third round left an even bigger impression on the NFL, presenting Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay, and Cooper Kupp.

The second round also produced high-caliber receivers in 2018, yielding DJ Chark, Christian Kirk, Courtland Sutton, and James Washington. Even last year, second-round selections A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, and Deebo Samuel outproduced the two first-round wide receivers (Marquise Brown and N’Keal Harry).

After the recent decade of up and down first-round receiver classes, teams seem more cautious about selecting receivers early in the draft. During the 2000s, 43 wide receivers heard their names called in the first round. In comparison, teams only selected 34 receivers with first-round picks in the 2010s. Also, the average of 2.3 wide receivers taken in the first round over the past three years (seven total) is the lowest among any three-year stretch since the turn of the century.

It is risky and dangerous to use a first-round pick on a wide receiver when chances are that a better one will still be available in the second round, which is usually the case. Even two of the five first-rounders in the legendary 2014 wide receiver class became disappointments.

This year, at least six wide receivers received close to first-round grades. Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III, Clemson’s Tee Higgins, Colorado’s Laviska Shenault Jr., LSU’s Justin Jefferson, and Oklahoma’s CeeDee Lamb could all go in the first round. That doesn’t even mention the numerous other players potentially vying for a first-round spot, like Denzel Mims and Jalen Reagor.

Before the NFL Draft, executives should take a long look at past drafts and determine, if it’s worth risking their jobs on a wide receiver in the first round, or if they should try for a more stable position with a higher success rate? The 2020 wide receiver class should be the best of this decade, but it could also leave a lot of teams floundering if their career projections are wrong.