Fantasy Football: Fade A.J. Brown in drafts at current ADP
A.J. Brown was a rookie darling in fantasy football but fade him in 2020.
Despite being a second-round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, fantasy football owners didn’t expect much from Tennessee Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown in his rookie season. Yet, he exploded as one of the breakout stars of the 2019 campaign, finishing the year as WR10 in standard leagues and WR15 in half-PPR leagues.
Now entering his second season, Brown’s stock is exceptionally high heading into the 2020 fantasy football season. According to Fantasy Pros’ consensus ADP, Brown is being drafted as the WR15 and the No. 36 overall player in half-PPR leagues right now. But while he finished as WR15 in that format last season. There is reason to believe that could go down.
Make no mistake, Brown is going to continue to be a weapon for Ryan Tannehill in the Titans offense. But the level that he produced as last season makes it seem difficult to believe he can replicate his rookie efforts, especially in terms of touchdown production.
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Fantasy football owners should beware of regression with A.J. Brown
Overall, A.J. Brown’s statistical output as a rookie was highly impressive. He registered 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging 11.9 fantasy points per game in half-PPR leagues. But even if you start there, Brown drops down to WR26 in terms of per-game production in fantasy football. His availability and playing 16 games is what vaulted him to WR15.
The potential for regression goes beyond that, however. According to numberFire, Brown ranked just 64th in the NFL in targets last season. Furthermore, he was inconsistent and touchdown-reliant with his scoring, falling below double-digit points in nine games last season. And to speak to that reliance on touchdowns, Brown had eight scores on 52 receptions. No player of the last 14 players with eight or more touchdowns on under 55 catches has topped six the next year.
To be sure, the Titans are going to make A.J. Brown a big part of the offense for the long haul. He also developed great chemistry with Tannehill as the quarterback took over in the offense and should emerge as the No. 1 target.
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But for a player who headlines the passing offense of a run-first team with a quarterback who could also regress in his own right, WR15 in terms of ADP is far too rich for my blood. I’ll be passing on Brown in fantasy football drafts if that’s what it takes to grab him, plain and simple.