Fantasy Football Stock Watch: NFC South Risers and fallers
By Drew DeLuca
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Stock Watch
Former MVP and four-time Pro Bowler Matt Ryan has finished as the QB12 or better in seven of the last 10 seasons. Over the last four seasons, Ryan has finished as the QB2 overall in fantasy football twice, a feat that’s far from impossible to repeat with one of the league’s best wide receiving duos: Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
Jones has logged six straight seasons with 80 or more receptions and was one catch and six yards shy of his fifth 100 catch, 1400+ yard season in 2019. Much is made of his less than desirable red zone performances, but excluding his injury-riddled 2013 season, Jones has scored six or more touchdowns in seven of eight full seasons.
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With Ryan under center behind an improving offensive line, Jones should be a no-brainer top-five fantasy wide receiver in all redraft leagues given his high volume of targets in one of the league’s most efficient offenses. Third-year wideout Ridley has flashed superstar talent himself with two straight seasons of 60+ catches, 800+ yards, and 7+ touchdowns despite starting only 15 total games in his two NFL seasons.
Ridley should exceed 80 receptions for 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns if healthy, and he’s not sneaking up on anyone after experiencing so much success in so little time. Russell Gage, however, fits the measure of a true sleeper.
Gage only crossed the stripe once, but he hauled in 45 passes over the last nine games of the season. Extrapolating this over 16 games, this amounts to an 80 catch, 715-yard season, which certainly would allow Gage to significantly outperform his low ADP of “undrafted” in 14-team PPR leagues, per FantasyFootballCalculator.com.
Gone in 2020 is Pro Bowl tight end Austin Hooper, now a member of the Cleveland Browns. His shoes are filled by Hayden Hurst, a former first-round pick and the consensus top tight end when the 2018 NFL Draft class was selected.
An injury to Hurst allowed fellow rookie and teammate Mark Andrews to burst onto the scene, relegating Hurst expendable. The Falcons acquired Hurst and a fourth-rounder for two draft picks, including a second-rounder.
Hurst has the physical tools to meet if not exceed Hooper’s per-game numbers (5.8 receptions, 60.5 yards, 0.46 touchdowns), but even the former South Carolina Gamecock offers just 80 percent of that production, fantasy football fanatics will be happy to reap a stat line of 74 receptions, 774 yards, and 5.8 touchdowns. When placed in the context of 2019 totals, those 186.2 points would make Hurst the TE7 in garden variety PPR leagues.
The most important offseason addition for the Falcons, however, is clearly running back Todd Gurley. The arthritis in his surgically repaired knee is reportedly “very bad,” according to Jeff Schultz of The Athletic (subscription required) but while that condition significantly weighs down Gurley’s dynasty value, his redraft prospects are high in 2020.
The Georgia product is playing on a one-year “prove it” deal, and appears to be in better shape than some claim. In a down year behind a problematic Los Angeles Rams offensive line in 2019, Gurley racked up over 1000 total yards and 14 touchdowns. at worst, he’s a starting-caliber running back in 2020 redraft fantasy football leagues, with potential league winning upside if taken in the late third round or later.