Is Drew Lock’s time with the Denver Broncos all but over?

With the Denver Broncos struggling this season, is Drew Lock’s time all but over?

Heading into this season, the Denver Broncos had one of the best offseasons of any team. The Broncos brought in multiple veteran players, such as Jurrell Casey, A.J. Bouye and Graham Glasgow. Denver also added a number of offensive weapons via the draft, including K.J. Hamler, Albert Okwuegbunam and, most notably, Jerry Jeudy.

With all of these pieces that they added, there was little reason to think that the Broncos would not improve. But through 13 weeks, Denver has struggled. The Broncos defense has certainly not been the cause of their struggles as they currently have the ninth-best EPA in the NFL, per RBSDM.com, which is up six spots from this time last year.

The main culprit from the Broncos’ struggles has been under center: quarterback Drew Lock. But before unpacking Lock as an NFL quarterback, it’s critical to understand where he came from.

Lock played four years with the Missouri Tigers. As a draft prospect, Lock was a toolsy player. He had the prototypical size coming out of college, measuring in at 6-2 and 228 pounds at the combine. Lock also had the arm strength most general managers covet. Whether from the pocket or off base, he had plenty of arm strength and he also was fearless, more than willing to take shots down the field.

With positives come the negatives, though. While Lock had a great arm in college, he also tended to not put it to good use. He would often take every and any shot on the field, even if the throw was extremely risky. Lock also faded on his throws, something most quarterbacks can’t get away with in the NFL.

This ultimately led to Lock being a second-round pick by the Broncos in 2019. In Lock’s first year with Denver, he had some flashes of solid play but he only managed to play five games as he was put on IR early in the year. Lock also had an ugly game or two, namely against Kansas City and the Chargers. Heading into the 2020 season, though, there was some hope as the Broncos gave Lock plenty of weapons to work with. He simply hasn’t delivered.

Lock’s style of play is easily summarized as a gunslinger. Gunslinger should have no connotation as just as many have succeeded as failed. With this style of play, quarterbacks usually have several ugly moments highlighted by great plays. Lock has plenty of ugly moments in 2020 but not so much of the good stuff. Lock ranks 29th in money throws, according to Player Profiler, while he ranks third in danger throws and seventh in interceptable passes.

Quarterback play can sometimes be attributed to poor offensive line or receiver play, but this is not the case for Lock. He has some of the most dynamic receivers in the NFL with two-speed demons in Noah Fant and Hamler, one of the best route runners in the NFL in Jeudy, plus Tim Patrick, who is having a breakout year. The Broncos pass blocking hasn’t been necessarily elite, but they have an elite left tackle in Garett Bolles, who has a PFF (subscription required) grade of 89.2

If Lock were to be on a team like the Jaguars or Jets who are struggling, then he may get some extra time to develop. But with the Broncos having quality players in other spots on their roster, there is more pressure on Lock to succeed immediately and there will be calls to replace him.

Who could the Denver Broncos replace Drew Lock with?

There won’t be any replacement for Lock immediately as the trade deadline has passed and it made no sense for the Broncos to ditch Lock in the middle of the season. To find who may replace Lock, we must look to this upcoming offseason, in particular, free agency and the draft.

In terms of free agency, there are a fair number of quarterbacks the Broncos could target. Philip Rivers is a proven veteran but he is nearing retirement very quickly. There is also Cam Newton, who has had some quality moments with New England this year. Denver could also look at a reclamation project in Mitchell Trubsiky, who has struggled with the Bears.

Should he manage to make it to the market, though, the Broncos should have all their sights on Dak Prescott in free agency. There have been rumors flying around with Prescott and if he will re-sign with the Cowboys or not. And after his injury, things are only going to get weirder.

If the Broncos don’t want to target quarterbacks in free agency or they miss on whoever they target, they can look for one in the draft then. Luckily for the Broncos, it’s a class rich at the position.

As it stands right now, the Broncos have the 10th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft and they could end up getting a better pick as their final four games come against the Carolina Panthers, Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders. Barring something crazy happening, the Broncos are nearly guaranteed a top-10 pick.

In terms of prospects, there are plenty available that the Broncos will have their eyes on. The two best quarterbacks in this draft, Trevor Lawerence and Justin Fields, will without a doubt be gone before the Broncos can make their pick as they will almost assuredly go No. 1 and 2. Guys like Zach Wilson from BYU and Trey Lance from North Dakota State should be more in the Broncos’ range.

Wilson has been a monster with BYU as he has led the Cougars to the No. 18-ranked team largely due to his dual-threat efforts. Trey Lance was projected as the third-best quarterback prospect entering the year as he was lighting the FCS ablaze with the Bison. COVID-19, however, limited his season to one game before he declared. If Denver waited until the second round, they could also look at Kyle Trask or Mac Jones.

As the Broncos likely continue to lose games and as Lock likely continues to struggle with plenty of pieces around him. And as free agency and the draft come into view, the pressure will only mount on Lock and the front office, which will ultimately lead to the end of the Drew Lock era with the Denver Broncos — how short it was.