DraftKings NFL picks, Week 17: Best DFS fantasy football values

Week 17 DraftKings NFL Values: Running Backs

Premium Tier ($7,000 and up): There are two ultra-talented, super-premium priced running backs on the main slate this weekend: Alvin Kamara (NO at CAR, $9,500) and Derrick Henry (TEN at HOU, $9,400). Kamara’s now listed as out (COVID), and while we wish him well, we were going to pass anyway on the built-in upcharge from his historic stat line from last week’s NFC Offensive Player of the Week performance.

Speaking of history, Derrick Henry has already made it this season by posting two games with 200 or more rushing yards and two or more touchdowns. He’s atop an impressive list, and we have a feeling Henry could potentially add to this tally in Week 17:

The living legend needs 223 rushing yards to become the eighth player in NFL history to cross the 2,000-yard threshold. He already posted 263 total yards against the Houston Texans in Week 6, so we see no reason why he can’t repeat that success with so much more on the line for the Titans (and so much less for the Texans).

Some will undoubtedly opt for David Montgomery (CHI vs. GB, $7,700) on the heels of his recent performances, but we see this as a trap. We may later regret quoting this stat, but the Green Bay Packers have been uncharacteristically good against the run recently, posting the second-best total of fantasy points allowed to running backs over the last four weeks.

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We’d rather roll with Nick Chubb (CLE vs. PIT, $7,600) against a Steelers defense that won’t be as wound for action as usual, or Austin Ekeler (LAC at LC, $7,500), who should likewise shred a Kansas City Chiefs defense that’ll likely rest several key starters. The Chiefs defense, when starting everyone at full throttle, already ranks an unimpressive 21st in the league in terms of fantasy points allowed to running backs.

In addition to Henry and Ekeler, we’ll be accumulating several shares of Jonathan Taylor (IND vs. JAX, $7,400) this week. The emerging rookie should see plenty of run against one of the league’s worst run defenses with the Indianapolis Colts’ playoff hopes on the line.

Mid-Tier Values ($6,000 to $6,900): Only four options can be found in this tier in Week 17, and one (James Robinson) is listed as OUT. David Johnson (HOU vs, TEN, $6,800), the highest-priced option in this tier, has a great matchup on paper, but we don’t trust him or the situation.

That leaves two players who should see sizeable Week 17 workloads, players who have ascended to the alpha role in t J.K. Dobbins (BAL at CIN, $6,700) faces a vulnerable Bengals run defense, and Myles Gaskin (MIA at BUF, $6,500) re-asserted himself as the alpha in the Dolphins backfield with169 total yards on 19 touches in his first game back from injury.

We also love D’Andre Swift (DET vs. MIN, $6,300), who offers a more volatile, yet equally high ceiling that pairs nicely with a respectable floor from his production in the passing game. The rookie out of Georgia, who has barely scratched the surface of his potential, has logged four receptions in each of his last three games, and five targets in six of his last seven and gets to face a Minnesota Vikings defense that ranks dead last in points allowed to fantasy running backs over the last four weeks.

We’re not as excited about Josh Jacobs or Chris Carson this week as we’ve been in the past, but Alexander Mattison (MIN at DET, $6,100) has our attention with Dalvin Cook out. We’re not as bullish as some since we still remember his Week 6 disappointment against the Atlanta Falcons, but we suspect he’ll still wrestle most of the backfield touches away from Mike Boone and Ameer Abdullah; Jeff Wilson, Jr. (SF vs. SEA, $6,000) is a similarly priced alternative, though the game script won’t favor him like it did last week.

Value Tier ($5,500 to $5,900): We expected Kareem Hunt to play a larger role in the game plan last week with the Browns’ four best wide receivers on the COVID list, but the clear backup to Nick Chubb saw only five targets and four carries. Frankly, if we’re going to play a second fiddle at this price, we prefer Tony Pollard (DAL at NYG, $5,900), who has quietly been more productive than Ezekiel Elliott this season.

Phillip Lindsay remains on IR, so we’ll once again roll out Melvin Gordon III (DEN vs. LV, $5,700), who was somehow not targeted in the passing game last week. We believe in our process here, so expect at least 20 touches and a much higher floor at home in Week 17 against a Las Vegas Raiders defense ranked 29th at shutting down opposing fantasy running backs over the last four weeks.

Giovani Bernard (CIN vs. BAL, $5,400) posted his second straight week with 20 or more fantasy points in DraftKings, despite a big day from Samaje Perine, whose running style should yield far less success against a tougher Ravens rushing defense. Bernard posted season-highs in receptions (7), targets (8), and receiving yards (66) with Tyler Boyd on the shelf; he’s the Bengals back to play (if any) in Week 17.

Wayne Gallman (NYG vs. DAL, $5,300)  has (pun intended) waned of late, yet figures to be a larger part of the game plan against a Dallas Cowboys defense that ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in shutting down opposing fantasy running backs in 2020. The Clemson product has demonstrated a nose for the end zone, and only four teams have allowed more rushing touchdowns to running backs than the Cowboys this season.

Bargain Bin: Aaron Jones should be a bit healthier in Week 17, but with Jamaal Williams still limited in practice on Wednesday, it’s getting harder to ignore A.J. Dillon (GB at CHI, $4,900) on the heels of his 129 yard, two-touchdown performance last week. Nyhiem Hines (IND vs. JAX, $4,900) and Gus Edwards (BAL at CIN, $4,900) offer respectable floors at the same price, but we much prefer Dillon’s clear upside.

Ty Johnson (NYJ at NE, $4,300) might lose a few carries to Josh Adams (NYJ at NE, $4,000), but given the Patriots’ struggles against the run this season, we expect a sizeable return on investment from the former, as both LaMical Perine (COVID) and Frank Gore (strained left raptor claw) are scheduled to miss the season finale. Meanwhile, Rodney Smith (CAR vs. NO, $4,000) should serve as the primary ballcarrier for the Carolina Panthers this week with Mike Davis listed as doubtful and Christian McCaffrey officially out, but we see Curtis Samuel and Trenton Cannon capping his ceiling.

In Kansas City, Darrell Williams (KC vs. LAC, $4,800) and Darwin Thompson (KC vs. LAC, $4,400) will lead the Chiefs backfield with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, hip) and Le’Veon Bell (knee) due to see little or no work in the regular-season finale. Even Chris Herndon truthers had a moment of glory in 2020, though they had to wait until Week 16 for planets to literally align, so perhaps Darwin Thompson truthers will have their day in Week 17.

Truth be told, we think Williams has the better shot of a mediocre day as the lead back in a non-Mahomes offense. In this tier, we’d rather start A.J. Dillon or Ty Johnson over either Chiefs running back.

Last but not least among value-priced running backs are Malcolm Brown (LAR vs. ARI, $4,300) and Ke’Shawn Vaughn (TB vs. ATL, $4,400). Brown is dealing with a shoulder injury, but Darrel Henderson’s untimely injury will bestow primary back duties upon the veteran if rookie phenom Cam Akers misses Week 17 with a high ankle sprain.

Vaughn finally worked his way onto the field in Week 16 and flashed the talent that made him a Day 2 pick. With the status of both Ronald Jones II (finger) and Leonard Fournette (abdomen) very much in question, Vaughn should once again see at least 15 carries, and should have plenty of scoring opportunities in what should be a high-scoring, yet one-sided contest.

Best Buys: Much of this depends on the variables above, but we like the idea of pairing Henry with whoever turns out to be the best gameday option out of A.J. Dillon, Ty Johnson, KeShawn Vaughn, or Malcolm Brown.