Fantasy Football: Who is the overall RB1 for the 2021 season?

The running back position is making a huge comeback in fantasy football. This year, a handful of players have the potential to put up massive numbers.

Who is the overall running back one heading into the fantasy football season? This is the age-old question fantasy analysts ask themselves every year. Some years it’s obvious; others, not so much.

Heading into the 2021 season, I think it only comes down to two choices. Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey, or Minnesota Vikings running back, Dalvin Cook. While a couple of other backs could have a case made for them, I think the consensus is on the same page with these two options.

So, who is it?

Don’t overthink or second guess: It’s Christian McCaffrey. Just two years removed from his league-winning fantasy football performance where he averaged 29.5 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, people are quick to write him off as the first running back off the board. This is because his 2020 season was riddled with injuries.

He only managed to see the field for three games. However, in these three games, he averaged 25 total touches, 125 total yards and two total touchdowns. He was the focal point of this offense and will remain in this role.

Elite Usage Keeps McCaffrey as the Fantasy Football RB1

Prior to his unfortunate 2020 season, McCaffrey has never missed a game due to injury before. In fact, when healthy, the Panthers put an emphasis on making sure he is on the field. Although a small sample size, in his three games last season, McCaffrey led the position with a snap rate of 77 percent.

The year before, he led the league again with 93 percent of snaps. Need more proof that he virtually doesn’t leave the field? In 2018, guess who led the running backs in snap percentage? McCaffrey.

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Some may argue the fact that when McCaffrey had his explosive 2019 fantasy season, the Panthers didn’t have as many offensive weapons. It was only D.J. Moore to compete with touches. Fellow wide receiver Curtis Samuel didn’t breakout yet and tight end Greg Olsen only had 52 catches and two touchdowns.

Coming into the 2021 season, the Panthers not only have Moore still but another year with Robby Anderson in the system along with newly drafted rookie receiver, Terrace Marshall Jr., who has been impressing in camp and preseason so far.

While all this is certainly true, I don’t think it is an accurate representation of how the team will utilize their star running back. The figures McCaffrey was able to put up in his three games last season all came with Moore, Anderson, and Samuel on the field.

Diving deeper into the numbers, it was not his production that took a hit. It was one of the receivers each time. He is too good of a player to not let the offense run through him. His usage will stay consistent with what it’s always been.

Christian McCaffrey is Both Running Back and Wide Receiver

McCaffrey is the ultimate cheat code. When drafting him, not only are you getting a running back one, but you are also getting a WR2. That’s just how good he is.

If we take just his receiving numbers from his 2019 season, McCaffrey recorded 116 catches for 1,005 yards and four touchdowns. This would equate to 240.5 points in PPR leagues. This would have been good for the wide receiver 12 on the year, just ahead of Jarvis Landry who had 237.4 fantasy points.

Not convinced? Let’s break down those 2020 numbers in the three games he did play.

Focusing only on his receiving work, McCaffrey tallied 17 catches for 149 yards and one touchdown. Extrapolate this for an entire season and he was on pace for 91 catches for 795 yards and five touchdowns. This would have been good for 200.5 fantasy points, ranking him as the 28th wide receiver, just ahead of Tee Higgins.

While not as good as his 2019 season, it is clear that the receiving role provides a high floor for this elite running back. With the ability to take one to the house on any given play, McCaffrey also provides one of the biggest ceilings for a running back.

Don’t let last year’s woes scare you off from taking McCaffrey with the first overall pick. An elite talent, a proven track record, a huge receiving role, and volume that fantasy managers desire, Christian McCaffrey still sits atop the thrown as the overall RB1.