NFL Free Agency Predictions: Bears signing Saquon Barkley?
Many NFL teams seem to be leery of spending big money on the running back position in today’s NFL. Only eight current running backs in the NFL have a higher average annual value on their contract than the one DeMarco Murray infamously signed with the Philadelphia Eagles (5 years, $40M, $8M AAV) all the way back in 2015. Eight years ago, Murray’s value would still hold up today as a top-10 overall value at the running back position in NFL free agency.
Titans running back Derrick Henry has an average annual value on his contract of $12.5 million per year, and Le’Veon Bell — after holding out an entire season — landed a deal worth $13.125 million AAV in 2019.
To say the running back position has depreciated in value would be an understatement, which is not great news for someone like New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley, one of the biggest names in 2023 NFL free agency.
Saquon Barkley NFL free agency predictions: Chicago Bears the only option?
Barkley had an insane rookie year in 2018 when he racked up over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 15 total touchdowns. He was not just a workhorse for the Giants that year, but a true dynamic option for their offense as a runner and receiver.
Injuries have hindered his career from truly progressing in recent years, but his undeniable talent resurfaced in a big way in 2022.
Saquon Barkley 2022 stats
- 295 rushing attempts
- 1,312 rushing yards
- 57 receptions
- 338 receiving yards
- 10 total touchdowns
Barkley just recently turned 26, so he’s poised to land a massive deal in free agency, but what does that even mean or look like at the running back position in today’s game? How much more will he get on top of the franchise tag (roughly $10 million) if the Giants let him walk?
The good news for Barkley is, while the market for running backs has dried up in recent years, he has three-down value and there are a lot of bad teams that need to spend quite a bit of money this offseason. Namely, the Chicago Bears. The Bears have cap space galore, almost $99 million, in fact. They are set to be one of the most active teams in 2023 NFL free agency and they are one of the teams that could truly afford a player like Barkley.
For some teams, signing Barkley to a four-year deal perhaps worth over $50 million at this point would be a horrendous use of assets. The Bears have to utilize their cap space, and their offense needs playmakers in a desperate way.
Barkley, and quite frankly many running backs, finds himself in a tough position of potentially having to go to a not-so-great situation like Chicago where they don’t have a great offensive line right now, and go where the money is at. It’s not always going to come from the teams that are set up with the best situations.
That’s not to say Chicago is a bad landing spot in free agency for Barkley, it’s only to say that if teams were all willing to spend equal at the position, perhaps Barkley might be more selective about where he would go. While the Bears aren’t the only team with a lot of cap space right now, they are undoubtedly in good shape to make a move like this and with their own starting back — David Montgomery — slated for free agency as well, a player like Saquon Barkley makes even more sense.