The 2023 NFL Scouting Combine took place this past week at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Prospects were invited to be evaluated physically and mentally in front of NFL coaches, general managers, personnel directors, scouts, and media members. Physical evaluations include size measurements, speed, agility, explosiveness tests, and position drills. Players’ evaluations can and will affect their draft stock leading up to the NFL Draft (April 27-29). They will also affect their dynasty fantasy football draft stock.
There are many risers and fallers after the combine this week. Of the risers and fallers from the Combine, Florida QB Anthony Richardson, may have received the biggest dynasty fantasy football rookie draft stock boost.
Anthony Richardson size:
Anthony Richardson measured at 6’4″, 244 pounds with 10 1/2-inch hands. Some height and weight comparisons at the QB position are players from the past, Ben Roethlisberger (6’5″, 241 lbs.) and Cam Newton (6’5″, 248 lbs.). These were two of the hardest QBs to take down in their respective eras. Comparisons from other positions are running back Derrick Henry (6’3″, 247) and tight end George Kittle (6’4″, 247 lbs.). These are two of the most physically punishing offensive players in the league tight now.
Some hand size comparisons at the QB position from players currently in the league are Josh Allen (10 1/8″), Aaron Rodgers, (10 1/8″), and Russell Wilson (10 1/4″). That is some elite company. That is not his first Josh Allen or Packers all-time great QB comparison, and it won’t be the last.
Anthony Richardson tests:
Anthony Richardson ran a 4.43 40-yard dash, which is 4th fastest for a QB ever, and tied for 6th fastest for any player weighing 240 pounds or more. He jumped 10’9″ in the board jump and 40.5″ in the vertical jump, which set new records for bests ever by a QB. He threw a ball at a velocity of 60 MPH, which is tied for 2nd fastest ever.
In the drills portion, Richardson effortlessly completed 60-yard passes downfield. When questioned about his arm strength, Anthony Richardson responded by saying “I don’t care if somebody complains about me throwing too hard. They better catch it.” This immediately drew comparisons between him and Brett Favre.
Anthony Richardson stats:
While his Combine performance was otherworldly, his college stats bring him back to reality. In 2022, he had completed 176 of his 327 attempts, only good for a 53% completion percentage. His TD to INT ratio was 17:9, but he added 7 more touchdowns rushing. He threw for 2,549 yards and rushed for 654 yards in 12 games. He struggled the most against SEC defenses, which is concerning heading into the NFL.
He even struggled against air during the Combine, throwing for an incompletion on an out route. However, we’ve seen a former 1st round pick with poor completion percentage turn into a top QB in the league recently. Former cannon arm Wyoming QB Josh Allen completed 56.3% of his passes in 2017 against Mountain West Conference competition. The Bills drafted him in 2018 and developed him into the QB he is today, including 63.3% completion percentage in 2022.
Anthony Richardson NFL and dynasty fantasy football rookie draft stock:
Prior to the Combine, Anthony Richardson was projected to be a top-20 pick in mock drafts. By picks 11-20, a majority of the QB-needy teams will have already picked, though. After the completion of the Combine, Richardson will likely be in everybody’s top 10 in mock drafts. There is an argument to be made that he should be the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. There are many QB-needy teams in the top 10 that could trade up and select Richardson including Texans, Colts, Raiders, Falcons, and Panthers. There are other teams not in need of a QB who still may take a swing at the QB including the Lions, Seahawks, Titans, and Commanders. Whoever drafts Richardson will be drafting a project with more upside than any QB in the draft. He will need at least one season behind a veteran QB to learn and develop.
Prior to the Combine, Anthony Richardson was ranked as the 11th rookie in one-QB dynasty fantasy football leagues and the 6th rookie in two-QB/Superflex leagues. Depending on league size and roster needs, he was likely to be pick 1.11 or 2.01 in one-QB leagues and pick 1.06 in two-QB/Superflex leagues. After the completion of the Combine, Richardson will likely be ranked 8th rookie or higher in one-QB leagues and 4th rookie or higher in two-QB/Superflex leagues. If Richardson is drafted as QB1 in dynasty rookie drafts, he could go as early as pick 1.05 in one-QB leagues and pick 1.02 in two-QB/Superflex leagues.
He will likely be drafted as QB2 or QB3, though, and drafted between picks 1.06 or 1.07 or picks 1.03 or 1.04 in two-QB/Superflex leagues. Regardless, that’s quite the jump. Add that to his impressive jumps of the week. If you’re interested in drafting Richardson for your dynasty team and taxi squad, I recommend acquiring a top-5 pick in one-QB leagues and a top-3 pick in two-QB/Superflex leagues. I also recommend acquiring these picks now because this hype will only continue. Free agency starts March 15, this is when QB dominos will fall. Florida Gators Pro Day is March 28, this is when Richardson will be evaluated further. Trades for NFL draft picks could happen as early as this week, or as late as NFL Draft day.