The NFL moved to a 17-game season beginning in the 2021 NFL Season, so we've got a good grip on playoff chances given recent history. In the coming weeks, the NFL playoff picture will truly begin to come into shape.
For example, at the end of Week 4, one of the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs will be 1-3, but it's likely that one of both teams finds a way into the playoffs. More games simply have to be played for us to get a good picture of how the playoffs might shake out.
However, through three weeks, there is a bit of data on the playoff chances with the four possible records a team could have after three games
Playoff chances for all 32 teams approaching Week 4 of the 2025 NFL Season
From NFL Nerd on Twitter/X, playoff chances, taken from the 2020s, paint an interesting picture across the league:
86% of teams that have been 3-0 since 2020 make the playoffs
— NFL Nerd (@NerdingonNFL) September 23, 2025
64% of 2-1 teams
25% of 1-2 teams
0% of 0-3 teams pic.twitter.com/wmbsZ44lMM
So, if we sort this out, roughly, here is how the playoff picture stands at the moment:
3-0 teams (86% chance) - Eagles, Chargers, 49ers, Colts, Buccaneers, Bills
2-1 teams (64% chance) - Packers, Bengals, Seahawks, Cardinals, Vikings, Steelers, Jaguars, Rams, Lions, Commanders
1-2 teams (25% chance) - Ravens, Falcons, Bears, Chiefs, Panthers, Cowboys, Broncos, Browns, Raiders, Patriots
0-3 teams (0% chance) - Texans, Giants, Titans, Dolphins, Saints, Jets
There are a few things that stick out here - of the 3-0 teams, the Indianapolis Colts feel the most likely to miss the playoffs, as we just do not know if they can sustain this success. A couple of 2-1 teams like the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars feel a bit shaky and won't make the playoffs. The Bengals are without Joe Burrow and are likely headed toward a long losing streak.
A few 1-2 teams like the Ravens, Chiefs, and Broncos feel too talented to not rebound in the coming weeks and find themselves over .500, and even the lowly Houston Texans could rebound and make the playoffs, as they have gone 10-7 in each of the past two seasons, so they have had the blueprint to win.