The NFL Draft is a crapshoot anyway, but there are some prospects who natrually carry more boom-or-bust potential than others.
In the 2026 NFL Draft, one prospect on the defensive side of the ball might be this year's crowned jewel in the "boom-or-bust" category: LSU linebacker Harold Perkins.
As a former five-star prospect, Perkins has been highly regarded since before he ever stepped foot on campus at LSU. And his early productivity justified the hype. In 2022 and 2023, Perkins racked up a combined 26 tackles for loss, 13 sacks, and a whopping seven forced fumbles. Over the past two seasons, his draft stock has plummeted (for a number of reasons), and now he is shaping up to be someone's Day 3 dart throw that could make them look like geniuses.
Harold Perkins may have the biggest boom-or-bust potential in the 2026 NFL Draft
LB Harold Perkins Jr. at LSU Pro Day:
— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) March 23, 2026
4.38 in the 40-yard dash 👀 pic.twitter.com/LuKjOQdEhX
Perkins got the attention of everyone in the NFL Draft community when he ran a blazing 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the LSU pro day. Even with that being a pro day time, that is a ridiculous number for an off-ball linebacker.
Teams will have a vision for Perkins, but he's got to be willing to put in the work to help bring that vision to fruition. He has the talent to be one of the best off-ball linebackers in the NFL, so why is he now being almost unanimously considered a Day 3 pick? Take a look at this from Lance Zierlein of NFL.com:
"Slightly undersized off-ball linebacker with solid 2025 production but less in-game impact than he showed in 2022 and 2023 before his ACL tear in 2024."
- Lance Zierlein, NFL.com
Perkins played just 16 games over the past two years due to injuries, and understandably, he was not quite the same guy when it came to the on-field product in 2025. It can take guys a while to get back to full strength from an ACL tear, but a 4.38 in the 40-yard dash at 223 pounds is an indicator that he might be all the way back.
And looking at what he did in 2022 and 2023, some NFL team is going to believe they can get him to play with his hair on fire again. And that's going to be key. This is an explosive playmaker with outstanding traits as a blitzing off-ball linebacker, and certainly the athleticism to be a standout special teams player early on.
Teams will believe they can get the first-round player Perkins was once billed as, but it's going to involve some risk. He's getting hidden a little bit in the outstanding linebacker class he's part of, but could end up making a team look really smart on Day 3.