AFC West
Denver Broncos: 12-5
The Denver Broncos could win fewer games in 2026 but still be seen as the same tier of team as they were in 2025. Denver got by with a ton of one-score, late-game victories, and that might not be sustainable. Adding wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to the mix could ease things up on offense, allowing Denver to get ahead and stay ahead.
And it's reasonable to think that this team could drop one or two of their one-score bouts in 2026 after being wildly successful in them in 2025. This league is simply too good for something like that to sustain itself for multiple years in a row.
Los Angeles Chargers: 11-6
The Los Angeles Chargers could finish 11-6 for the third year in a row. The team did bring in Mike McDaniel to run the show on offense, which was a great move, but the team didn't noticeably improve the offensive line, and losing their stud coordinator in Minter to the Ravens head coaching job could lessen the upgrade that McDaniel should be on offense.
Overall, the Chargers feel like the same exact team they have been in each year of the Jim Harbaugh era thus far. They're good, but not quite great, and that's the issue.
Kansas City Chiefs: 9-8
Another team in that tier should be the Kansas City Chiefs, who overpayed big-time for Kenneth Walker III in the offseason and still have major concerns at wide receiver, tight end, and all over the defense. The secondary got a lot weaker with the departures of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, and no move of note was made at wide receiver.
Patrick Mahomes is also coming back from a major knee injury, and it really doesn't feel like the Chiefs' roster got that much better. Even when Mahomes was healthy in 2025, Kansas City wasn't a special team and was very beatable. I think we see more of the same in 2026.
Las Vegas Raiders: 5-12
The Las Vegas Raiders snagged Fernando Mendoza this offseason and could have just drafted the league's next franchise quarterback, but with Kirk Cousins in the mix, it's clear that the Raiders want to take this slow, so this rebuild could end up really taking off in 2027. The fans might have to be patient this year, as the offense as a whole is still a bit of a mess, and it always seems like Vegas' defense is falling short.
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