4. Arizona Cardinals - .538
Another team that could struggle to win a game this year, the Arizona Cardinals may already be 0-6 when you think about it, as they have to play Los Angeles, Seattle, and San Francisco twice. Having six games with those teams is surely inflating this schedule, but either way, the Cardinals have an uphill battle for even a small handful of wins this year.
5. Kansas City Chiefs - .536
I would personally pump the brakes on the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026. Not only do they have a tougher schedule, but there's no guarantee that Patrick Mahomes will be fully ready for the start of the regular season. With the fifth-hardest schedule in the league and the team coming off a six-win season, where is the genuine optimism coming from?
6. New England Patriots - .531
Going from the easiest to one of the hardest schedules in the NFL, the New England Patriots might be as obvious a team as any to regress a bit in 2026. Sure, Drake Maye could still be a hyper-efficient quarterback, and the roster is solid, but this is a total 180 schedule-wise.
7. Las Vegas Raiders - .529
The Las Vegas Raiders have a tough schedule and are probably not wanting to throw rookie Fernando Mendoza into the fire this early, which could be a smart move. Vegas did add a ton of talent this offseason and could be a frisky team, but a top-10 schedule might prevent that.
8. Buffalo Bills - .528
Buffalo always seems to be atop the AFC hierarchy in some capacity, so while their Super Bowl aspirations might again be dashed in the playoffs, there really isn't any reason to believe that the Bills won't win a ton.
9. Los Angeles Chargers - .522
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone 11-6 in the regular season in both years of the Jim Harbaugh era. Given that the Bolts have another tough schedule, and given that this roster didn't get substantially better in 2026, it's hard to see how they eclipse 11 wins.
10. Carolina Panthers - .521
After a very odd season in which the Carolina Panthers won just eight games but also won the NFC South, the team will have a tougher schedule. It's hard to see how Carolina builds on their 2025 season, as I'm not sure Bryce Young is good enough, but they've gone in the right direction in each year of the Dave Canales era.
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