Early trends worth monitoringÂ
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold is having a fine year, ranking 11th in yards per attempt, 23rd in completion percentage, and 21st in passing success rate.
But his level of play varies significantly depending on the defensive coverage he faces.
Against man coverage (24 dropbacks), Darnold has completed just 42.9% of his passes (36th) and averages 3.1 yards per attempt (37th). Against zone (82 dropbacks), those numbers jump to 71.2% completion rate (10th) and 9.14 yards per attempt (4th).
It's probably too early to determine whether these differences represent a real trend, considering the small sample size in man coverage, but they're absolutely worth monitoring.
Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. has played excellent football in his three games as a starter for the Atlanta Falcons. He ranks 4th in EPA per pass, 3rd in passing success rate, and 2nd in yards per attempt.
But digging deeper, he has been much less effective when pressured. Granted, pretty much every quarterback performs worse under pressure, but the difference in these numbers is striking.
When kept clean (60 dropbacks), Penix has completed 79.3% of his passes (4th), averages 10.4 yards per attempt (3rd), with a +0.65 EPA per pass (3rd).
Under pressure (23 dropbacks), those numbers plummet to 31.6% completion (37th), 6.1 yards per attempt (20th), and -0.59 EPA per pass (29th).
23 pressured dropbacks obviously isn’t enough to draw a confident conclusion, but I found it interesting enough to include.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers' passing attack are coming off an excellent game on Sunday, as Love threw for 367 yards, two touchdowns, and averaged 11.84 yards per attempt and +0.47 EPA per pass.
Of those 367 passing yards, 215 came when Love was under center. On 11 under-center dropbacks, Love completed 10 of 11, averaged 19.55 yards per attempt, and recorded 1.13 EPA per pass.
We see a similar trend when we zoom out to all five games.
Under center (42 dropbacks), he’s completing 73.2% of his passes (7th), 11.49 yards per attempt (3rd), and +0.45 EPA per pass (3rd).
From the shotgun (144 dropbacks), Love has completed 57.5% of his passes (34th), averages 6.59 yards per attempt (22nd), with a -0.03 EPA per pass (20th).
It's worth noting that Love has only 42 dropbacks under center this season, so this discrepancy could narrow as the season progresses.
But Love and the Packers' passing attack have been most effective when he's under center, particularly when utilizing play-action. Of his 42 under-center dropbacks, 34 have involved play-action, accounting for 412 of his 471 passing yards from under center.
One possible reason the Packers' offense has underwhelmed is its inability to consistently create favorable situations for under-center play-action. Green Bay's rushing attack ranks dead last in EPA per rush and 31st in rushing yards per play.
The Packers have struggled to run the ball on early downs, potentially leaving Love in obvious passing situations on third down, where throwing from the shotgun becomes more practical.
Okay... fun's over. I should probably get back to class now.
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