Indianapolis Colts
Ceiling: 11-6
Floor: 6-11
At one point in 2025, the Indianapolis Colts were 7-1, and it felt like everything was working. The team collapsed down the stretch and won just one game after that. Daniel Jones also tore his Achilles, so his status for Week 1 is in question.
However, this team did get out to a 7-1 start for a reason, so there is still a chance the Colts are able to find that magic again. On the flip side, though, this team then proceeded to play some pretty sloppy football, and much of that was due to a Jones' regression right before the injury.
The Colts' ceiling for 2025 is a modest 11-6. Jones would have to get on the field rather immediately, and the Colts would also likely not get off to as strong of a start, but the roster talent is absolutely good enough for this team to get into the playoffs.
The floor, though, is when things, for the most part, fall apart big-time. Jones plays a lot like he did after the 7-1 start, and the defense, which isn't necessarily star-studded, can't pick up the pace.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ceiling: 12-5
Floor: 9-8
The Jacksonville Jaguars won 13 games in the regular season and captured the AFC South title. Given how new everything was for the team last year, it might not be that likely for Jacksonville to capture that kind of success in 2026.
There is now an entire season of tape out on Liam Coen's offense, and two big losses of Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd in free agency will hurt this roster. On paper, the Jaguars are good, not great, and need another strong offseason of adding players before becoming a legitimate contender.
The ceiling is a bit lower than 2025 for those reasons, and the floor might actually be more likely. A regression back to the mean could be on the table, and if Trevor Lawrence can't play as he did in the second half of the 2025 season, the Jags won't be that special of a team.
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