The AFC played out rather unexpectedly during the 2025 NFL Season, as all of Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Baltimore missed the playoffs. Two of the top three seeds were Denver and New England, two teams that weren't necessarily in those conversations before the season.
And I am not sure there was much of anyone who truly thought that the Patriots would win the AFC. Through the month of September in the 2026 NFL Season, it's clear that the AFC could end up looking a bit different than it did last year, but at the same time, largely stay the same.
Through three weeks, two of the three undefeated teams in the AFC are the two mainstays that have dominated the conference for years prior.
Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills top the very early AFC Playoff field
As Week 4 begins, the 3-0 Chiefs are in first in the AFC, and the 3-0 Buffalo Bills are in second. According to the NFL Playoff Picture, via Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs currently have an 82 percent to make the playoffs this year, and the Bills are sitting at 92 percent.
And, because of course, the Chiefs and Bills play each other in Buffalo on November 26th, a Thursday Night Football showdown.
We have seen these two juggernauts go blow-for-blow in the regular season and postseason. While the Bills have the edge in the regular season, the Patrick Mahomes-led Chiefs have never lost to Buffalo in the playoffs.
In fact, the Chiefs have not advanced to the Super Bowl just two times in their Mahomes-playoffs experience, losing in the AFC Championship Games in 2018 and 2021. The Chiefs have advanced to the title game each year they've made the playoffs in the Mahomes era.
As for the Bills, they've been to the AFC title game two times in the Josh Allen era, losing to the Chiefs in 2020 and 2024. If the current trend holds with Kansas City and Buffalo at No. 1 and No. 2, we could again see another installment of the Mahomes-Allen playoff saga.
On the other hand, we have seen some new-ish teams begin to make a name for themselves in recent years in Denver and Jacksonville, for example, and the Bengals even look rather solid through three weeks.
The AFC Playoff Picture could end up being rather congested, as there may certainly be a team that finishes with a winning record on the outside of the playoff picture.
For the time being, though, the AFC looks like how it always does - the Chiefs and Bills up top.
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