Week 7 is in the books! Luckily, I have seven takeaways from this week's games. Definitely didn't coordinate that at all.
Regardless, I have some thoughts! Most of which will probably look completely idiotic in a few weeks. But that's just the nature of the NFL.
One week you're atop your division standings, the next you're looking at mock drafts at 2 in the morning and you're on the verge of tears, but you don't cry because you're a grown man and promised your therapist you wouldn't do that anymore!
Seven observations from NFL Week 7
1. Wait, Is J.J. McCarthy Actually Good Now?
J.J. McCarthy was traded to the New York Giants for a bag of chips a few weeks ago.
Okay, fine, it was a fifth-round pick, but that's not too far off if we're being honest.
And while it's only been a week and a half, McCarthy has been playing great for his new team. Across 54 dropbacks in two games, McCarthy has averaged 10.1 yards per attempt, with a 95.2 passer rating and +0.12 EPA per dropback.
Can McCarthy sustain this level of play? Can he lead the Giants to a division title in a weak NFC East? Did the Minnesota Vikings give up on him too soon?
The Giants' season looked over when Jaxson Dart went down with a season-ending injury in Week 2. But now, this team has life! They have hope!
And it's largely because of McCarthy's performance over the last two weeks.
I'd like to see what that bag of chips is doing right about now.
2. The Vikings Can't Keep Getting Away With This!
As a Bears fan, I feel like Jesse Pinkman every time I watch the Minnesota Vikings win. “He can't keep getting away with this!”
'"He", being the Vikings, if that wasn't clear.
The Vikings just won a football game despite scoring only 16 points, averaging 4.9 yards per play, and -0.10 EPA per play.
They won the game because the Vikings' defense held the Indianapolis Colts to just 10 points, 218 total yards, and a -0.14 EPA per play.
And this has been the formula all year. Minnesota's offense ranks in the bottom 10 in just about every relevant statistic I could think of, while its defense ranks first or second in most of those same categories.
That's their formula: win with a dominant defense and hope the offense doesn't mess it up. It's an uncommon path to success in today's NFL, and it's fair to question whether it's sustainable.
Especially considering their schedule gets considerably harder over the next few weeks.
Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, San Francisco 49ers.
Four straight games against some of the NFL's best teams.
We'll know all we need to know about this Vikings team by the end of November.
3. The Bengals Offense Is Starting to Look Scary
The Cincinnati Bengals got off to a 2-0 start, but it wasn't because of their offense. Through the first two weeks, Cincinnati ranked 22nd in EPA per play and 29th in success rate. It was their defense that led them to those first two wins.
But recently, this Bengals offense has started to look like the one we expected coming into the year. From Weeks 3–7, Cincinnati ranks first in EPA per play and second in success rate.
Data from Sumer Sports.
And Sunday's game against the Baltimore Ravens was a perfect example of just how good this offense has been: 35 points, 7 yards per play, and a +0.25 EPA per play.
I'm not smart enough to figure out exactly what's changed, but the Bengals have one of the hottest offenses in the league.
This is a dangerous team right now.
4. Todd Monken Is Awesome
The Cleveland Browns are 5-2. What a world we live in!
I think new head coach Todd Monken deserves a ton of credit.
The man has brought a certain swagger to the Browns. A confidence. Someone Cleveland fans can rally around.
Browns fans are waking up on game days actually excited to watch football. They might even expect to win! That hasn't been true in a while.
Honestly, I don't think that's ever been true for Browns fans. Excited to watch football? In Cleveland?
And it's not like they're winning because of some offensive revolution. The Browns rank 27th in EPA per play.
But Cleveland fans don't care. They probably don't even know what EPA is, and most NFL fans might not even know!
They're proud! They're riding high!
I had a buddy who's a Browns fan call me crying after Sunday's win. Monken has Browns fans crying tears of joy! Usually, it's tears of despair!
I've been super impressed with how Monken has approached this job, and his team sits atop the AFC North standings after Week 7.
Good for you, Monken.
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