One of the main reasons we all love the NFL is the fact that so much can change year over year. While some teams are obviously rebuilding, you never know who is going to steal a division title, steal a playoff spot, go from worst to first, or shock the world in a given season.
The unpredictable nature of the NFL means that everyone who made the playoffs last season has to watch their backs, because their spot last season isn't guaranteed this season.
For a trio of AFC teams, it might already be over. With all of the player movement, coaching changes, and improvements made by other teams, we're not going to see the same seven teams make it to the postseason in 2026. Which teams are already doomed to lose their playoff spots in the AFC before the season even gets going?
3 AFC teams doomed to lose their playoff spots in 2026
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars were one of the examples of the breakout team that took everyone by surprise in the NFL. They emerged after having the 5th-worst record in the league in 2024, winning the AFC South and earning the #3 seed in the playoffs.
This season, they're going to have a really difficult time holding onto that spot, or even getting back to a Wild Card.
While the Jaguars have a really talented and well-coached team, they also play in the same division as the Houston Texans, who may have the most complete all-around roster in the NFL. The Texans got better in the 2026 offseason, and the Jaguars arguably got worse. We'll see how it goes with some young players they are banking on, but losing both Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd hurts.
Not only did Houston get better, but the Colts have a healthy Daniel Jones again, and they were on their way to possibly winning the division before he got hurt last year.
The Titans are also one of the most improved teams in the league. Even if only because their division is so strong, the Jaguars are going to have a tough time getting back into the postseason again, but if they lose hold of the division, they've also got to worry about the field of teams vying for Wild Card spots, which is expected to be really deep once again in 2026.
Even if this Jaguars team wins 10 games, they might not make it. They need the same Trevor Lawrence we saw in the second half of last season to show up and hit the ground running at the start of 2026.
2. Los Angeles Chargers
The Kansas City Chiefs have some of the best Super Bowl odds of any team in the league right now, so who do the oddsmakers and prognosticators think that's going to come at the expense of?
The Chiefs didn't make the playoffs last year. The Chargers didn't win the AFC West, the Denver Broncos did. So are we supposed to assume the Broncos -- the #1 seed in the AFC and the team that hosted the AFC Championship Game -- are going to fall from that spot to out of the playoffs completely?
It would make a lot more sense for the Chargers -- the 7th seed in the AFC last season -- to lose their playoff spot.
That is, of course, assuming the Chiefs can find a way to get back. I think the Chargers are the better team than Kansas City right now, but if any AFC West team is giving up a playoff spot to Kansas City, it's probably going to be the Chargers and not the Broncos.
The offensive line concerns continue to linger for the Chargers with Rashawn Slater missing practices after suffering a setback in his recovery. The left guard position remains unsettled.
On top of that, there has to be at least some healthy level of concern over the fact that Jesse Minter is gone. He left behind a veteran-laden defense, which helps, but he was a really good coordinator, and we've seen from other teams in recent years (Lions, for one) how much it can hurt to lose one of those.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
I'm going to have a lot of crow to eat after the 2026 season if the Pittsburgh Steelers are actually good this year. It's not that I'm doubting even the possibility that things could go well in the first year for this team under new head coach Mike McCarthy, but it has just felt like the Steelers have been on the cusp of needing to hit the reset button, and this year will ultimately push them toward that.
This is an older roster that doesn't really stand out in any one area right now. They were almost completely reliant last season on turnover margin, and they'll have to take it away at a high rate again this year to get back on top of the AFC North.
With the Browns being the Browns, and both the Bengals and Ravens dealing with injuries all season, the Steelers almost won the AFC North by default last season. They felt like the AFC's version of the Panthers in the NFC South last year.
And frankly, their playoff loss to Houston was proof of exactly what we're talking about. They got absolutely smoked.
You're not going to get the same circumstances year over year. The Ravens and Bengals are both expected to be better, and most people seem to be banking on the Ravens finding their way back into the postseason this year after missing last year.
If there's one team I'm nearly certain is going to give up a playoff spot heading into the 2026 season, it's the Pittsburgh Steelers.
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