It's way too early in the 2026 NFL season to be talking about projecting the playoffs, but even after just three games, it's clear that some of the current division leaders around the league are more likely to hold their spots than others.
Week 4 is fully stocked with top-tier matchups, and even though we're only at the beginning of October, we're going to learn a lot about the contenders around the league
Which current division leaders are in the most trouble heading into Week 4? Not just danger of losing their current hold on the division, but danger of not even being in the discussion by the end of the season? This is as much a question of who is going to stumble in Week 4 as it is a question of who is passing the early "eye test".
3 NFL division leaders already in trouble heading into October
3. Philadelphia Eagles, NFC East
There is a lot of season left for the Philadelphia Eagles to right the ship, but there is also a lot of season left for things to get even worse.
The Eagles absolutely have not passed the eye test early this season. They had 10 first downs as a team in their Week 1 win over the Washington Commanders. They needed a fourth-quarter comeback in Week 2 to beat the Tennessee Titans.
And after flirting with disaster in the first two weeks of the season, it caught up to them in Week 3 with a blowout loss against Case Keenum and the Chicago Bears. Although you have to give the Bears credit for the way they beat up on the Eagles, it's embarrassing for Philadelphia that it went down like that.
Even though the most present threat to the Eagles in the NFC East appears to be the 2-1 New York Giants, it could end up being any of the other teams in that division. It's hard to see the Eagles simply skating by on their talent gap again this season.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers, AFC North
Through the first three weeks of the season, the AFC North is the only division in football where every single team has a winning record. Even though it's early in the season, that's pretty rare to see.
The first two weeks were not pretty for the Steelers this season, and then out of nowhere, they had an explosion of offense in Week 3 against the Bengals, getting a crucial early win over a division opponent.
Whether or feel like the Steelers are not passing the early eye test, or simply are playing in a division that will be too overcrowded to win, they have to be considered one of the most "in danger" division leaders currently in the league.
Every team in that division has flaws, there's no doubt. But at this stage of the season, I wouldn't be putting my money on the Steelers ending up defending their division title.
1. Carolina Panthers, NFC South
Currently, the only division leader around the NFL with a losing record is the Carolina Panthers.
Just like the way we left things in the 2025 season.
However, there are so many similarities between the NFC South teams and how each of them win, as well as how each of them struggle. The Panthers have shown an ability to score a bunch of points and load up the stat sheet offensively, but they also have shown that they will give up a ton of points.
Projecting the NFC South this early in the season is nearly impossible. None of those teams feels like it has any sort of firm grasp, and this division will almost certainly come down to the wire once again.
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