Have you ever heard that average draft position (ADP) is a copy and paste of the previous season’s rankings? Well, that is a rather accurate description of the feature used on several fantasy football websites. That said, using that tool to guide you throughout your drafting season could end your season before it ever truly begins.
Take this 2023 article as an example. Of the five players listed, four of them were drafted in the top-5 of their respective positions, according to fantasydata.com. However, there is a correlation that is tied to 2022. Justin Jefferson, Joe Burrow and Saquon Barkley finished the season in the top four of their positions.Â
Okay, that is a small sample size. What if we drag the sample size throughout the last decade of fantasy football statistics to paint a clearer picture of the perils of drafting according to ADP? According to fantasy data, at least half of the top-12 players from last season’s final rankings at each position are being drafted in the top-12 again this year.
How ADP can destroy your fantasy football season before it begins
If you were to use that tool to draft any position, by far the safest one would be quarterback. From 2015-2024, there is a 50% split on whether half of the top-12 at the position will change from one year to the next. Obviously, that is not a particularly great outlook, but, compared to other positions, there is at least a bright side.
For tight ends, there are only two seasons over the last decade with a less than 50% change percentage of the top-12 finishers. The average amount of change is 6.4 players falling out of the top rankings. Again, not the worst, but far from a good outlook that ADP is forecasting.
Wide receiver is where it gets bad for the tool, as, again, there are just two seasons with less than 50% change within the top finishers over the last decade. However, the average amount of change per year is 7.2 players falling out of the top-12 over the last decade.Â
If wide receiver was bad, running back is downright ugly in regards to its rate of change over the last decade. The position has just one season of less than a 50% fall-off, and averages 6.9 changes per year.
To summarize all of this, there is a ton of change amongst the top players at every position each year in fantasy football. If one follows what seems to be a copy-and-paste tool, the fantasy season may be lost by the end of the draft.
The rest of the week will be dedicated to in-depth analysis of each position. Whether that is which finishes are statistically most volatile, which are safest or emerging trends, it will all be covered.
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