The AFC playoff picture does now feel like an eight-horse race. Let's dive into the entire picture after the Week 10 action. Right now, there does seem to be a clear picture in the AFC, and it does feel like the top five seeds in the AFC are already locked up, but much can still change.
The conference has not been as good as many of us thought heading into the season. Teams like the Browns, Jaguars, and Bengals have not been good, and a team like the Colts that won nine games in 2023 have not seen second-year QB Anthony Richardson take the year two leap.
That has opened the door for teams like the Chargers and Broncos to slip into the picture. Below is the current AFC playoff picture, with percentages to make it provided by NFL Next Gen Stats.
NFL Playoff Picture: Updated AFC playoff odds following Week 10 action
1. Kansas City Chiefs - >99%
The lone unbeaten team in the NFL, the Kansas City Chiefs could probably lose the rest of their games and still get into the postseason.
2. Buffalo Bills - >99%
Now 8-2, the Buffalo Bills are likely to wrap up the AFC East in the coming weeks and feel like they're also locked into that two seed as well.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers - 93%
Benching Justin Fields for Russell Wilson, the Pittsburgh Steelers may have something cooking with "DangeRuss."
4. Houston Texans - 96%
The Houston Texans were 5-1 at one point and are now 6-4 on the season, but their current odds to make the playoffs are still close to 100%. They'll make it and be just fine.
5. Baltimore Ravens - 97%
It would not shock me to see the Baltimore Ravens winning the AFC North this year, but as of now, they are the fifth seed in the current AFC playoff picture.
6. Los Angeles Chargers - 85%
In year one of the Jim Harbaugh era, the Los Angeles Chargers have already eclipsed their 2023 win total and have an 85% chance to make the postseason.
7. Denver Broncos - 51%
The Denver Broncos have lost two games in a row but are still in that seventh and final spot in the NFL playoffs and are still given a 51% chance to make it in 2024. Can they end their playoff drought?
8. Indianapolis Colts - 22%
The Indianapolis Colts have a QB issue and a measly 22% chance to make the playoffs. It would not shock me to see them going back to Anthony Richardson at some point in the near future.
9. Cincinnati Bengals - 28%
The Cincinnati Bengals defense is so bad that it's really been the only culprit for this team being 4-6 on the season. I am not sure their defense is going to be able to play well enough for them to get in, and their 28% chance to make the playoffs seems to indicate as much.