3. CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
CJ Stroud's rookie season was special, but since then, he's been rather average. Just take a look at what he did in 2023, and then how he followed that season up in 2024 and 2025:
2023
4,108 yards
23 touchdowns
5 interceptions
100.8 passer rating
273.9 yards per game
2024 and 2025
6,768 yards
39 touchdowns
20 interceptions
89.6 passer rating
218.3 yards per game
For whatever reason, Stroud's production has taken a hit, but this offseason, the Houston Texans did seem to shore up the holes on offense. Adding David Montgomery into the backfield does give Stroud a legitimate RB1 and helps stabilize the run game, and while wide receiver Jayden Higgins is out for the year, Nico Collins is still a thing, and the offensive line also received some help in the offseason.
Despite the regression, Houston has advanced into the Divisional Round all three years of Stroud's career, and with the personnel situation on offense finally being where it needs to be, I struggle to see why Stroud won't respond. Sure, there is some projection and 'hope' here, but we did all see Stroud play his tail off as a rookie in 2023, and with a major contract extension on the line this year, his performance will improve.
2. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints
Tyler Shough shocked a lot of us last year. He and the New Orleans Saints went 5-4 with him starting, which included winning four of five games to end the season.
And if you take Shough's final eight starts of the season and average those games out across a full 17-game campaign, this is what he was on pace to put out:
69.7 percent completion
4,420 yards
25 total touchdowns
9 interceptions
It was quite the back-half stretch for Shough, who now has reinforcements at running back with Travis Etienne, has a new guard in David Edwards, and will also get rookie wide receiver Jordyn Tyson back at some point. And with how weak the NFC South is, Shough and the Saints could shock the NFL world and win the division.
1. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants
Jaxson Dart did amass 24 total touchdowns in just 14 games as a rookie in 2025. With a veteran, reliable coaching staff, and John Harbaugh already having proven to be able to oversee a young QB development (Lamar Jackson), the second-year Dart is in a great spot this year.
He comes with a legitimate dual-threat profile, and while he could play a bit safer overall, it's reasonable to expect that the smarter style of play comes with experience. While the New York Giants don't exactly emulate stability, Harbaugh's insertion into the franchise can help bring that, and the QB stands to benefit the most.
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